Florida is roasting in extreme heat and on pace for record-warm year

Florida – a state known for its warm weather – has seldom endured a summer of such extreme, persistent and humid heat until now. This hot weather, remarkable for its duration and intensity, has the state on pace for its warmest year on record.

The worst of the heat began in late June and has yet to let up. Since June 23, parts of the state have been under heat alerts on all but three days (July 26 to 28).

Many Florida locations experienced a record-hot July, and August is off to a sweltering start. Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Daytona Beach and Tallahassee are all experiencing their hottest August on record so far.

Some of the summer’s most intense heat is occurring now. On Friday, all of Florida was under heat advisories or excessive-heat warnings, which were likely to be extended into the weekend. Record highs are forecast daily through at least Wednesday, from Key West to Jacksonville.

Like large parts of the southern tier of the Lower 48 states, many locations in Florida are poised to have their hottest summer on record, with the list of places including Key West, Miami, Sarasota, Tampa and Pensacola.

For 2023 so far, most of Florida is experiencing its hottest year on record, with no sign of any cooler weather to bring relief.

Record-long streaks of hot weather

The Florida heat has been particularly remarkable for its persistence.

The National Weather Service has issued heat alerts in Florida on 49 days since mid-June, according to data compiled by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Excessive-heat warnings – the most extreme alert – have been issued on 14 of those days, including all of the past week.

Given all the focus on Phoenix – which just experienced the hottest month on record among U.S. cities – one might guess it would be the city with the most 90-degree days this year. Not the case. Rather, two Florida locations – Plant City, about 20 miles east of Tampa, and Fort Myers – have both endured more such days than Phoenix, with 128 and 113, respectively.

Numerous population centers have piled up record numbers of hot days:

Sarasota, about 40 miles south of Tampa, notched its 44th day in a row of 90-degree weather Thursday. It is forecast to experience highs in the 90s through at least next Thursday.

Miami had a 34-day run of 90-degree weather – its fourth-longest on record – that ended in late July, only to be resumed shortly thereafter. Every day of August has reached at least 90 there, including six in a row of 94 or 95.

Heat that’s prolonged and intense

While Florida’s heat has been most exceptional for its duration, it also has set numerous records for its intensity.

Notable is that Key West’s low temperature was only 88 degrees Wednesday, its highest minimum temperature for any date on record.

The heat has boosted water temperatures across the region to record and near-record values. They were as high as 101 degrees off South Florida a few weeks ago and continue to run from around 90 to 95 along the Gulf Coast.

Florida has company

Florida is part of a broad area where punishing heat and humidity have prevailed, extending west along the Gulf Coast and into the Desert Southwest. Unusually resilient zones of heat pressure or “heat domes” have remained lodged over this entire region for months. In addition, El Niño’s climate pattern tends to intensify heat across the southern states during the summer, while human-caused climate change also contributes to rising temperatures.

The zone from Corpus Christi, Texas, through New Orleans and Mobile, Alabama, is seeing its hottest summer and probably will vie for its warmest year on record.

More to come

Numerous records are forecast to be set from Texas to Florida over the next week.

Orlando is among places that may endure record highs each of the next six days. The current outlook from the Weather Service indicates dozens of calendar day records are at risk across Florida during the stretch ahead, not to mention locations to the west.

The forecast for Orlando calls for a high of 99 degrees Friday and Saturday. Should it hit 100, it will be the first time since June 2015.

Every outlook period forecast by the Climate Prediction Center, three months into the future, has Florida remaining warmer than average.

Although the heat dome may reorient itself to focus on the central and western United States with time, Florida will much remain firmly under its influence through much of the rest of August.