Analysis: NBA free agency winners and losers: Damian Lillard is going to get his wish
This year’s free agency action was so brisk that it seemed like the entire NBA wanted to enjoy the Fourth of July holiday for once.
Virtually every significant free agent was snapped up within 48 hours: Draymond Green kicked things off by re-signing with the Golden State Warriors, Kyrie Irving landed a new deal with the Dallas Mavericks, and Fred VanVleet cashed in with the Houston Rockets. Meanwhile, aspiring contenders like the Los Angeles Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks kept their core groups together.
Damian Lillard and James Harden – two stars who weren’t even free agents – caused the biggest shock waves when they requested trades from the Portland Trail Blazers and Philadelphia 76ers, respectively. As the league waits to see where Lillard and Harden land, here’s a rundown of the weekend’s winners and losers.
Winner: Damian Lillard
Lillard’s win-now vision for the Blazers took a big hit when the organization selected Scoot Henderson, a 19-year-old point guard, on draft night rather than swinging a trade for star-type talent. Portland’s only meaningful free agency move was to re-sign forward Jerami Grant on a five-year, $160 million deal that was far too generous. In other words, the Blazers remained squarely on track for a third straight demoralizing lottery trip.
That stasis finally led Lillard to cry uncle and request a trade after 11 memorable seasons in Portland. Even if the seven-time all-star doesn’t land at his preferred destination, the Miami Heat, he will get to spend the next chapter of his career playing meaningful games, adding to his playoff record and chasing his first championship. Breakups are painful, but Lillard had accomplished everything he could in Portland and still has several years of prime performance left in the tank. It was time.
Losers: Portland Trail Blazers
While an awful lot has gone wrong for the Blazers in recent years, general manager Joe Cronin has made decisions this summer that should pay off in the long run. Cronin kept the No. 3 pick rather than mortgaging his team’s future with a misguided trade. He then drafted Henderson as the best player available rather than targeting another prospect who might fit better alongside Lillard. Finally, he acquiesced when Lillard issued his trade request, signaling to Portland’s fans that this shouldn’t be an ugly, drawn-out divorce and that a new era was on the horizon.
Even so, Cronin, who took over Portland’s top job in December 2021, now faces a career-defining trade. Recent precedents like Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell are sure to raise expectations, and the small-market Blazers badly need a major infusion of assets. Portland has intriguing young pieces like Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons, but they are bound to be one of the league’s worst teams for the foreseeable future. The Lillard trade will determine whether the Blazers can rebuild in three years or if they are headed for a decade of pain. No pressure.
Winners: Los Angeles Lakers
It’s amazing how much business can get done when Russell Westbrook’s $47 million salary isn’t clogging up the books. The Lakers re-signed Reaves (four years, $56 million), D’Angelo Russell (two years, $37 million) and Rui Hachimura (three years, $51 million) while adding Gabe Vincent, Taurean Prince, Jaxson Hayes and Cam Reddish to the mix. Reaves’ agreement might have been the summer’s best value signing, and Russell’s shaky postseason helped Los Angeles avoid what easily could have been an overpay.
Though Hachimura’s deal feels a bit inflated by his timely playoff performances, he fits the Lakers’ broader push for youth, size and athleticism around LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Taken together, the Lakers have much better depth and balance than they did at the start of last season, and general manager Rob Pelinka succeeded in maintaining continuity after a surprise run to the Western Conference final. No wonder James has given up flirting with retirement and spent Saturday on Instagram welcoming his new teammates.
Losers: Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are the latest team to learn that staying on top is often harder than getting to the top. Fresh off a thrilling playoff run and a punchy championship parade, Denver lost Bruce Brown to the Indiana Pacers and Jeff Green to the Houston Rockets. While Nikola Jokic and the rest of the starting five remains intact, the Nuggets’ second unit and late-game lineups will take a big hit without Brown, who repeatedly came through in big moments during the playoffs.
Denver managed to re-sign Reggie Jackson on a two-year deal, but the backup guard hardly saw the court during the playoffs. Jokic’s knack for covering up his team’s weaknesses will be put to the test during the Nuggets’ title defense.
Winner: Kyrie Irving
The Brooklyn Nets chose not to extend Irving last summer. Few teams were interested in trading for him last season. And his late-season stint with the Dallas Mavericks went so poorly that it ended in a full-blown tanking effort. But none of that stopped Irving from landing a three-year, $126 million contract from Dallas, which threw good money after a bad trade to ensure Luka Doncic would have a star partner.
Irving’s anti-vaccine and antisemitism controversies might have spoiled Brooklyn’s title hopes, cost him his Nike endorsement deal and soiled his reputation for many observers, but he still secured a significant payday in a tight spending environment. While it’s difficult to imagine any other team giving Irving the same contract, it only takes one desperate owner to keep the checks coming.
Loser: James Harden
By contrast, Harden decided to pick up his 2023-24 player option once he realized he wouldn’t be commanding a lucrative, long-term offer from the Philadelphia 76ers or anyone else. That had to be an aggravating turn of events for the 2018 MVP, whose repeated trade requests, recent injury issues and postseason misadventures contributed to the tepid interest.
A trade to the Los Angeles Clippers would allow Harden to compete for a title and play his way into a new contract. However, he was surely hoping for a more immediate and lucrative resolution after forgoing millions of dollars to aid Philadelphia’s roster-building efforts last summer.
Winner: Rich Paul
LeBron James took a social media victory lap on behalf of Paul, his longtime friend, after the Klutch Sports CEO negotiated nine-figure contracts for Grant, Draymond Green and VanVleet in the first 24 hours of free agency. The celebration was warranted: Grant got a rare five-year deal from Portland despite Lillard’s murky future; Green got a four-year deal from the Golden State Warriors despite punching former teammate Jordan Poole and stomping on Domantas Sabonis’s chest during the playoffs; and VanVleet nearly doubled his previous salary with a three-year, $130 million pact with the Rockets despite coming off a down year.
Paul excels at extracting maximum value by identifying what teams can’t live without. Portland couldn’t lose Grant given its threadbare frontcourt and its investment of a first-round pick to acquire him. Golden State couldn’t hope to extend its dynasty without Green’s defensive prowess. And Houston couldn’t accelerate its rebuilding efforts without throwing huge amounts of its cap space at a proven lead guard.
Losers: Houston Rockets
Credit the Rockets for using their cap space, as the Detroit Pistons and San Antonio Spurs sucked some of the fun out of this summer by sitting on their hands. That said, Houston overpaid across the board to add VanVleet, Dillon Brooks (four years, $80 million), Jock Landale (four years, $32 million) and Jeff Green (one year, $6 million).
Those four players will bring a degree of experience and competence that Houston has badly lacked, but the Rockets must now integrate their older-guard additions with a young core composed of recent lottery picks Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr. and Amen Thompson. With new coach Ime Udoka probably looking to make a playoff push, some real positional conflicts are bound to emerge. For example, VanVleet’s high-usage approach will probably come at Thompson’s expense. Houston’s ownership and front office understandably got sick of so much losing over the past three seasons, but its spending spree won’t pay long-term dividends unless Green and Thompson develop into franchise players.
Winners: Tyrese Haliburton and Domantas Sabonis
The 2022 trade that sent Haliburton from the Sacramento Kings to the Indiana Pacers for Sabonis wound up getting everyone paid. The 23-year-old Haliburton thrived in Indiana and on Friday inked a five-year maximum rookie extension that will be worth more than $200 million. The next day, the 27-year-old Sabonis, who helped carry the Kings to their first playoff appearance since 2006, renegotiated and extended his contract so that he will reportedly earn $217 million over the next five seasons.
While the Pacers had every reason to lock up Haliburton as their franchise player, the Kings chose to invest their salary cap space into Sabonis and forward Harrison Barnes rather than making any splashy signings that could have helped them build on their first-round exit. Showing faith in a fun and explosive offense is a good thing, but this summer already feels like a missed opportunity for Sacramento.
Loser: Joel Embiid
Harden’s potential departure puts Embiid, the reigning MVP, in the uncomfortable position of wondering whether he will have a star sidekick. Philadelphia churned through Jimmy Butler and Ben Simmons before the Harden era, and now rising guard Tyrese Maxey might be the best available option if a miraculous deal for Lillard doesn’t emerge.
Meanwhile, the 76ers lost Georges Niang, Shake Milton and Jalen McDaniels in free agency while adding an aging Patrick Beverley. With Embiid needing a playoff breakthrough more than any of his superstar peers, Philadelphia must get a quality return in any Harden trade or it risks losing significant ground on the East’s other contenders.