Analysis: These MLB clubs have had surprising starts. June might bring the truth.

When Major League Baseball seasons reach June, the stakes go up. June is the month when teams must start shedding preseason visions for in-season realities, must start assessing what they have and what they need to be active in October. May still qualifies as early, still offers the excuses of cold weather, allows plausible deniability for slow starts. June is more definitive. June spits out the truth.

And as June begins, the MLB standings contain more than a few surprises. The entire American League East, for example, is over .500. The St. Louis Cardinals are fourth in the National League Central they were projected to win. The Philadelphia Phillies have just one more win than the Washington Nationals. The Tampa Bay Rays are on pace for 112 wins. Some of these early surprises will sustain their current pace, for better of worse. Others will progress or regress to their more familiar performance levels. Which teams will take which course? Time will tell. So will the list below.

St. Louis Cardinals

Among the more stunning developments of the 2023 season is the Cardinals’ impotence. They entered this season with an experienced roster and pitching staff – both looked like the most complete in a weak division. They are seven games under .500 and trailing the rebuilding Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates, neither of whom were expected to make the playoffs any time soon.

But the Cardinals seem to have all the necessary pieces. The Reds and Pirates are young and do not rival St. Louis’ depth. And the Cardinals, with their never-ending glut of big league ready outfielders and a respected farm system, will be well-positioned to add key pieces at the trade deadline if necessary. The Cardinals should be surprised and concerned by where they stand these days. But they should still expect to stand somewhere much different a month or two from now.

San Diego Padres

The Padres are four games under .500, have had multiple team meetings, and look like a team burdened with expectations teetering on the verge of implosion. But if they can stay close, they have reason to believe they will fare better moving forward. Other than Juan Soto, who himself struggled in the first month of the season, none of their stars is performing at career levels. Manny Machado missed time with injury. Xander Bogaerts has an OPS 69 points lower than his career norms. Contact savant Jake Cronenworth is hitting .206 with the highest strikeout rate of his career. Fernando Tatis Jr.’s OPS is more than 150 points behind his prodigious career norms in a short return from suspension.

Padres starters have also been inconsistent. Yu Darvish has a 4.61 ERA. Blake Snell is 1-6 with a 4.50 ERA and striking out fewer batters per nine innings than in any season since he was 24 in 2017. Joe Musgrove missed time to start the season and has not pitched like an ace since. Perhaps the pressure of the Padres’ spending and higher-than-ever expectations is resulting in a collective downturn the team can’t shed. But history suggests one or all of those players should play better in the months to come. If they do, the Padres will rise.

Arizona Diamondbacks

From one perspective, the biggest surprise in the National League West might be the Padres’ struggles. But the emergence of the Arizona Diamondbacks may soon be one of the defining stories of this season.

For years, the Diamondbacks floundered in a tough division, stockpiling prospects and good young pitching, always seeming a year or two away. But this year, Arizona has taken what looks to be a credible leap. The Diamondbacks are 11 games over .500 and tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers atop the NL West. They are playing an aggressive style well-suited to new MLB rules facilitating base-stealing and are fourth in the majors with 53 stolen bases, despite being caught just eight times. They strike out less often than 25 other teams.

Their young lineup has the sixth-highest batting average and seventh-highest OPS in baseball. These Diamondbacks clearly have the talent to compete with their division. The question is whether they have the experience to make a playoff push, or whether their first full season of contention will expose holes small samples have so far been able to hide.

Baltimore Orioles

In some ways, the Orioles are a year or so ahead of the Diamondbacks in a similar, if more drastic, rebuilding process. They, too, entered this year relying on their stores of young talent to take a big league leap. They, too, have seen young position-playing prospects establish themselves as reliable contributors. They are second in a brutal division. While they did not invest in their roster at last year’s deadline, this team seems credible enough to do so this year.

But the Orioles will need more from their starting rotation to remain in this position a few months from now. Young starters such as Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish and recently demoted Grayson Rodriguez have flashed promise.

But their starters are pitching to a 4.81 ERA. The good news for the Orioles is they have shown resilience, registering 19 comeback wins and establishing themselves as an offense that can overcome most deficits. But offense comes and goes, and more experienced teams than the Orioles have run out of steam when comebacks are required on a nightly basis. If they can add to their rotation at the deadline, Baltimore may just be built to stay.

Texas Rangers

Since last offseason, the Rangers have approached their roster like a team ready to win now. They have banked on the arrival of prospects hoarded during down years, much like the Diamondbacks and Orioles. But they have also spent exorbitantly on veteran talent to help hasten their transformation. This year, they seem to have the combination right.

Thanks in part to the emergence of 25-year-old third baseman Josh Jung as a bona fide offensive star in a lineup that already had several, the Rangers have the second-highest team OPS in baseball, tied with the Dodgers, trailing only the soaring Rays. Their major league best run differential (+131) reflects not only that lineup, but a deep and experienced starting rotation that has fared just fine without injured ace Jacob deGrom in recent weeks. Nate Eovaldi looks like the smartest signing of the offseason. And perhaps most importantly, in a division long dominated by the Astros, the Rangers seem to be coming together right as injuries are picking the vaunted Houston rotation apart.

History suggests no one should bet against the Astros. But the Rangers may just be ready to make a long-awaited stand.