Can the Arizona Diamondbacks really win the National League West?

In retrospect, Evan Longoria probably should have just taken Pavin Smith’s bishop a move earlier. He admitted as much as he got up from the table in the visitors’ clubhouse at Nationals Park, headband on, sunglasses protecting the back of his head from the fluorescent clubhouse lights.

Smith, ten years Longoria’s junior, saw no need to gloat. They chatted through the scenarios, through all the ways the last moves could have gone. Neither of them played much chess before spring training. They, along with several of their teammates, are figuring this strategy thing out as they go along.

The same is true for the Arizona Diamondbacks as a whole. Few players on their roster had played winning baseball in the big leagues before this year.

Few people in the industry thought they would be this good – leading the inevitable Los Angeles Dodgers and star-studded San Diego Padres in the NL West, owning the second-best record in the National League – this soon.

Fewer thought they would be this good – still charging through more experienced teams with a run-and-gun style all their own – this long. Even after years of accumulating elite talent with high draft picks, teams do not go from losing 110 games to a 97-win playoff pace in two short years. The Diamondbacks are in uncharted territory, and they are starting to wonder just how far they can go.

“We have young players who probably don’t know what’s around every corner. I think they try to peek every once in a while,” Arizona Manager Torey Lovullo said. “I think that’s why we have veteran players, like Evan Longoria, who can humble them or redirect their thoughts, or maybe help them see around the corner a little bit more clearly.”

Around the corner, Longoria knows, lie the longest and most grueling months of a long baseball season, months key Diamondbacks like rookie sensation Corbin Carroll, catcher Gabriel Moreno, emerging shortstop Geraldo Perdomo, and more, have never even experienced at this level. Others, like Smith or slugging Christian Walker or key starters like Cy Young candidate Zac Gallen and righty Merrill Kelly, are familiar with the grind, but not with the prospect of glory.

“I don’t think there’s anything wrong with being excited about where we are. I think that’s something that needs to be embraced,” Longoria said. “I think it’s something that needs to be talked about. It’s a constant reminder to keep your foot on the gas pedal.”

The Diamondbacks have no trouble keeping their feet on the gas pedal. In fact, they are known for their relentless team speed – and for their willingness to use it. In this era of bigger bases and limits on pickoff attempts, few rosters are built to take advantage quite like theirs. Only three teams in baseball have stolen more bases and one of them, the Tampa Bay Rays, has the best record in baseball. Only two teams have advanced from first to third on a single more, which is important. Arizona has the second-highest batting average in baseball and the third-lowest strikeout rate. It puts the ball in play, gets on base, and runs. And everyone knows it.

“I think the biggest thing is pitchers are definitely thinking about it and that’s when they make the most mistakes to hitters,” Smith said. “You can tell they’re worried about people on base. They tend to speed up and then it just kind of snowballs.”

But the Diamondbacks cannot sneak up on other teams in June and July like they did in April and May. Other teams will try to adjust to them, to strategize – to try to draw a young roster into mistakes of inexperience, like leaving the bishop untouched. In fact, some opponents are already doing that.

Take Carroll, for example, Arizona’s 2019 first-round pick who broke into the majors last year at 21 and owns an absurd .922 OPS in his first 92 major league games. He has been nearly unstoppable, seen internally as such a sure thing that the Diamondbacks signed him to a an eight-year deal worth $111 million in spring training.

Arizona hitting coach Joe Mather said he sees opposing pitchers trying to adjust, trying to force Carroll into the kind of chess match not all young hitters know how to win.

“I see them attempting to [adjust],” Mather said with a smile. “I think they have an idea of what they’d like to do, but at the same time they have to execute it. And if they leave it where he does his damage, he hasn’t been missing it.”

Teammates say Carroll, the speedy rookie of the year candidate, is uncommonly mature for his age. Smith bemoaned the fact that Carroll “missed like, one question on his SATs.” Longoria said while Josh Rojas is the best chess player in the clubhouse, Carroll has been the most maddeningly quick learner.

“He thinks ahead,” Longoria said.

Longoria thought ahead when he signed with the Diamondbacks this offseason. He admitted he wasn’t sure what their next move would be or when they would be ready to contend. His family was in Arizona, so that helped. But what he thought he saw from across the field during his years with the San Francisco Giants was an organization lining itself up for long-term success, much like the Rays were during his rookie of the year season in 2008. Upstart Tampa Bay made the World Series that year.

“The decision I made to come here, thinking this was a team that would be ready to make the next step – it’s just nice to know I still know what I’m looking at,” Longoria said. “It’s played out so far. We’ve got a long way to go.”

The Diamondbacks could probably benefit from adding experience to their rotation and some depth to their bullpen. They have plenty of prospect capital should they decide to acquire talent at the deadline. They seem likely to have plenty of good years ahead if they decide to wait it out.

In a similar position last year, the Baltimore Orioles decided not to trade young talent for proven talent at the deadline and missed the playoffs, an anticlimactic ending to an inspiring baseball year. But they are contending again this year. They, seemingly, did not squander their only chance.

The Diamondbacks could play it safe at the deadline, too. They could take the bishop, the next safe move. But by then they could have the NL West in check. The hard decisions are ahead.

“I worry about big picture things every once in a while. Like, are we getting too comfortable? Are we getting way ahead of ourselves?,” Lovullo said. “It’s my job to kind of keep them in the now and be present.”

At present, Arizona is one of this season’s most pleasant baseball surprises, emerging from years of losing seasons with a team that might surprise everyone all the way to October. But the opening is the easy part. The next moves will be the most telling.