Commentary: Could it be as simple as the Mariners just aren’t good enough to return to the playoffs?

SEATTLE – The flight from Seattle to New York covers about the same distance as the flight from Baltimore to Seattle. But for the 37-39 Mariners, the former probably felt like an hour and the latter closer to 10.

It was a week ago, after all, that the M’s had won their second consecutive series to get back to .500 before heading east to try and make up ground against two teams – the Yankees and Orioles – who hold leads on them in the American League wild-card race.

No one homestand or road trip can define a season. But losing consecutive series while going 2-4 over its past six games was another step back for a team that’s been moonwalking all year.

And at a certain point – after all the breakdowns and analyses – you have to wonder if the Mariners’ primary issue is that they’re simply not good enough to make the playoffs.

First, a couple caveats: Despite this latest setback, the Mariners are still just 4.5 games out of the third wild-card spot. Winning streaks happen – even with the cellar dwellers of MLB.

Remember, the 20-60 A’s, owners of the worst record in the league, won seven straight earlier in the month before dropping their next eight. The Reds, meanwhile, were 29-35 before winning 12 in a row to shoot to the top of the NL Central this month, and the Giants – 32-32 before their streak – won 10 straight and 12 of their past 13 to jump to the front of the NL wild-card race.

Yes, the Mariners won 14 in a row last season and 61 of their last 94 to end their playoff drought. But to quote The Wire’s Slim Charles: “the thing about the old days – they the old days.”

There is a reason the Mariners’ playoff odds have dipped to 16.6%, according to fangraphs.com – and it’s not just because they are seventh in the wild-card standings. It’s also because, despite quality starting pitching and a top-tier bullpen – their offense is about as reliable as in-flight Wi-Fi.

Exhibit A: Despite putting up 10 runs in one game and 13 in another, the Mariners had three losses on this trip in which they failed to score more than two runs. This has been a theme throughout the season – as the prodigious one-run-victory percentage that catapulted the Mariners to 90 wins in each of the past two seasons has regressed to the mean in 2023. What’s scarier is that, despite being 27th in MLB in batting average, 19th in stolen bases and 24th in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS, the M’s are still 17th in runs. Meaning if not for timely hitting, their production could be considerably worse.

The man epitomizing this offensive dearth is the reigning AL Rookie of the Year, Julio Rodriguez – whose slash line of .240/.305/.424 pales to the .284/.345/.509 line he posted last year. I realize slash lines aren’t the most familiar statistic to some fans – but it’s clear to just about anyone that he has dropped off. Same is true of his 2.0 Wins Above Replacement mark, which is on pace to fall well short of the hefty 6.2 WAR he posted last season.

The wild thing is that as much as Rodriguez is struggling – a highly unexpected and disappointing situation – he is still second on the team in WAR, behind only shortstop J.P. Crawford (2.1). The “best” offensive stat the Mariners have going for them is home runs – which skipper Scott Servais puts a strong emphasis on – but even there they rank 16th in MLB.

Granted, things have gotten better on the designated-hitter front, with Mike Ford slugging .565 in his 19 games this season (which have included six home runs). And it’s hard not to think Rodriguez won’t recapture some of his 2022 form.

Meanwhile, the Mariners bullpen has the fourth-best ERA in baseball, while the starting pitchers have combined for the ninth best – so there is potential there.

Still, it seems every time the Mariners have given their fans hope that a return trip to the postseason is possible, they thrust the transmission into reverse. And though this next homestand begins with three games vs. the struggling Nationals (30-47), it ends with three vs. the 54-27 Rays – owners of the best record in MLB.

The Mariners need that spark. It’s just looking less and less likely that it’s coming.

They have a fine young core, no doubt. But at this point, they appear incomplete.