Commentary: Seahawks QB Geno Smith is in the middle of a worrying trend

SEATTLE – It’s becoming clearer why the Seahawks signed him to such a team-friendly deal that, maybe, just maybe, ends after this season.

It’s becoming more apparent why coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider were taking selfies with all the first-class quarterback prospects last spring, and why they weren’t shy about the idea of drafting one.

It’s hard to look at Seattle QB Geno Smith from a personal standpoint and feel anything but delight for a man who waited seven years to get his starting job back before thriving in the position. But if you’re a Seahawks fan, it’s also been hard to look at Geno Smith over his past 11 games and feel much security.

I know, 11 may seem like a random number given that the Seahawks have played five contests this year, going 3-2 in that stretch. But the final six games last season were, in aggregate, a departure from the dominance we saw from Smith earlier in the year.

There was a moment last November in which it seemed as though Geno might not only win NFL Comeback Player of the Year (which he did), but also receive some MVP consideration. But since then, if you look at his average yards per game, average yards per throw, or average TD rate – you’ll see a guy who’s just been average.

Case in point: Smith’s 233.8 passing yards per game this season rank 13th in the NFL. And it’s not as though he simply isn’t throwing the ball that often, as his 7.1 yards per attempt sit 14th. One might point out that Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is 15th in yards per attempt this season and is among the early MVP candidates. But Mahomes has an unrivaled résumé among active signal callers and has led his team to a 5-1 record.

Furthermore, Smith has simply not been able to use that right arm of his to get the ball in the end zone. His five touchdown passes are tied for 22nd in the NFL – quite the dip after finishing fourth last year.

It would be easy to dismiss this as a small sample size, which would be the prudent move if Smith were more proven. But the truth is, his whole career as a starter is a small sample size, particularly if we’re talking about starts he’s made since being benched by the Jets after 2014.

Last year’s meteoric rise was exemplified by Smith posting a passer rating of at least 104 in nine of his first 12 games. In the 11 he has played since – including the playoff loss to the 49ers – he has gone above 104 just once.

This doesn’t mean he is incapable of dynamic performances or picturesque passes. Smith’s game against Detroit in Week 2 of this season – when he went 32 for 41 for 328 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions – is the primary reason Seattle pulled off the upset.

And even in Sunday’s 17-13 loss to the Bengals, in which Smith threw two picks and took four sacks, he still launched dimes to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett that reminded us why he was considered one of, if not the best deep-ball thrower in the league last season.

But this year he is 22nd in the NFL in completions of 20 yards or more (14). And while 36 players have completed a pass of 40 yards or more (including Seahawks backup Drew Lock), Smith is not one of them.

This has to be disconcerting for fans hoping that the Seahawks were going to improve on their 9-8 season in 2022. They still might – especially given the team’s defensive showings over their past two games – but storybook as Smith’s ascent was at the start of last season, he’s receding to game-manager status. That’s unlikely to lead to a double-digit win total.

Smith, as always, took responsibility for Sunday’s offensive shortcomings.

“I felt like the guys deserved to win today. Obviously I didn’t do my best job to get that done,” he sad. “Those are things I put that on myself, that I lay at my feet and put on my shoulders. I look forward to the next opportunity.”

There are still 12 more regular-season opportunities if Smith stays healthy, including Sunday’s home game vs. the lowly Cardinals (1-5). Geno has shown he can do it .

What he hasn’t shown, however, is that he can keep doing it. That’s the worry, and it’s a legitimate one.