A powerful hurricane named Lee will develop in the Atlantic this week, forecasters say

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — A tropical depression that’s gaining strength in the Atlantic will likely develop into a “powerful hurricane by the end of the week” as it travels west toward the Caribbean, forecasters said Tuesday.

It would be the fourth hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic season, and would be dubbed Lee.

The system is currently 1,425 miles east of the eastern Caribbean, moving west-northwest at 15 mph.

Its trajectory has it headed in the general direction of the Caribbean and potentially Florida. Several forecasting models show the storm steering north at some point. It remains unclear when, exactly, that would happen, and where that would place the storm. A sharp turn north would take the storm away from South Florida.

“The high pressure to the north of it, that’s what’s going to steer it,” said Anthony Reynes, senior forecaster with the National Weather Service in Miami.

“Tropical systems, they cannot go against the flow of the high pressure, they have to go around it … once it moves to the north of Puerto Rico, it’s going to start shifting more to the north and eventually northeast. The cyclone is moving around the edge of that high.”

There will also be a low pressure trough moving west to east over the U.S. that should also contribute to the northward motion of the storm, he said.

It was too early to know exactly how close the system will get to the islands of the eastern Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center’s 11 a.m. update said. The current cone indicating the probable path of the eye of the storm sits just north of Puerto Rico.

The system will be traveling over record warm water, close to 86 degrees. Therefore, “all indications are that the depression will become a strong hurricane by the end of the forecast period,” the National Hurricane Center said.

Their long-range forecast said winds could reach 140 mph.

It was “more organized” Tuesday, producing showers and thunderstorms about 900 miles west-southwest of Africa’s Cabo Verde Islands.

As of Tuesday, there have been three Atlantic hurricanes this season — Don, Franklin and Idalia, the latter two of which were major hurricanes.

Another tropical depression could form later in the week or next weekend from a tropical wave set to emerge off Africa and move toward the central tropical Atlantic. As of 2 p.m. Tuesday, its odds of developing were at 70% within seven days, and 30% within two days.

Meanwhile, the remnants of Hurricane Franklin were given a 20% chance of “developing some subtropical or tropical characteristics” in the next seven days over the warm waters near Portugal.

Tropical Storms Katia and Gert dissipated Monday.

The National Hurricane Center, which operates under the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, has forecast 14 to 21 named storms, including six to 11 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes.

The National Hurricane Center has been predicting an “above-normal” 2023 hurricane season as a result of ongoing record-breaking sea surface temperatures that continue to fight off the tempering effects of El Niño.

While sea surface temperatures have remained hot for longer than anticipated, El Niño’s effects, which typically reduce hurricane chances, have emerged more slowly.