Sam Farmer’s Week 15 NFL picks

NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups this week. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Record last week 10-3 (.769); season 141-67 (.678).

Cowboys (5-8) at Panthers (3-10)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Panthers by 2½. O/U: 42½.

This one figures to be close. The Panthers have looked better lately and they’re playing hard. Cooper Rush has done a respectable job, and Micah Parsons will be all over Bryce Young. Pick: Cowboys 23, Panthers 20

Chiefs (12-1) at Browns (3-10)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Chiefs by 4½. O/U: 45½.

Week after week, the Chiefs have been incredibly lucky. Their past four wins were by a combined nine points. Maybe they’ll create some breathing room against the up-and-down Browns. Pick: Chiefs 27, Browns 21

Dolphins (6-7) at Texans (8-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Texans by 2½. O/U: 46½.

The Texans are rested, but aren’t as reliable as their fans had hoped. The Dolphins are 4-1 since the return of Tua Tagovailoa. He’ll feel the heat of that Houston pass rush but should prevail. Pick: Dolphins 28, Texans 22

Jets (3-10) at Jaguars (3-10)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Jets by 3½. O/U: 40½.

A couple of hugely disappointing three-win teams. The Jaguars couldn’t generate much of anything against Tennessee last week, and the Jets’ defense is at least fairly good. It’s the Jets. Pick: Jets 20, Jaguars 17

Commanders (8-5) at Saints (5-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Commanders by 7. O/U: 43½.

The Commanders return to action after an off week and are relatively healthy. The Saints are banged up with Derek Carr out for the foreseeable future. Jayden Daniels will keep rolling. Pick: Commanders 30, Saints 17

Ravens (8-5) at Giants (2-11)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Ravens by 14½. O/U: 43½.

The Baltimore defense isn’t as good as it typically is, but it should look terrific against that anemic Giants offense. Lamar Jackson will be hard for New York to contain. Pick: Ravens 31, Giants 13

Bengals (5-8) at Titans (3-10)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bengals by 4½. O/U: 46½.

The Bengals showed heart in their win over Dallas. Tennessee’s offense isn’t good, but it will be up against a wobbly Cincinnati defense. Tennessee will have a hard time keeping pace. Pick: Bengals 23, Titans 17

Buccaneers (7-6) at Chargers (8-5)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Chargers by 3. O/U: 46½.

A lot depends on the health of Justin Herbert. Baker Mayfield is playing well for Tampa Bay, but the Buccaneers are really going to miss safety Antoine Winfield Jr. Pick: Chargers 21, Buccaneers 17

Bills (10-3) at Lions (12-1)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Lions by 1½. O/U: 54½.

It doesn’t feel as if the Bills are going to lose back-to-back games, and they’re better than Green Bay, which took Detroit to the limit last week. The Lions have injuries at some key defensive spots. Pick: Bills 27, Lions 24

Patriots (3-10) at Cardinals (6-7)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Cardinals by 5½. O/U: 46½.

The Cardinals have lost three straight after a four-game winning streak. New England’s defense is pretty tough and physical. The Cardinals have more weapons on offense. Pick: Cardinals 23, Patriots 20

Colts (6-7) at Broncos (8-5)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Broncos by 3½. O/U: 44½.

Denver’s defense is legit, and Bo Nix is doing surprisingly well in that offense. The Colts will try to run it, and they should stay in the game for a while. But Nix makes more plays than Anthony Richardson. Pick: Broncos 24, Colts 20

Steelers (10-3) at Eagles (11-2)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Eagles by 5½. O/U: 42½.

Great cross-state game. Pittsburgh keeps piling up the victories, but winning in Philadelphia and containing Saquon Barkley, with as well as the Eagles have been playing, is a tall order. Pick: Eagles 28, Steelers 24

Packers (9-4) at Seahawks (8-5)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Packers by 2½. O/U: 46½.

The Seahawks have won four in a row and are starting to play stout defense, clamping down on the run against Arizona. They will need to do the same against Josh Jacobs. Pick: Seahawks 24, Packers 20

Bears (4-9) at Vikings (11-2)

Monday, 5 p.m.

Line: Vikings by 7. O/U: 44½.

The Bears are 0-6 on the road and got obliterated at San Francisco last week. The Vikings have won six in a row, and even though it’s a divisional game it shouldn’t be close. Pick: Vikings 27, Bears 16

Falcons (6-7) at Raiders (2-11)

Monday, 5:30 p.m.

Line: Falcons by 4½. O/U: 44½.

More quarterback problems for the Raiders, who could turn to Desmond Ridder. Their defense can be solid, though. Atlanta should have enough firepower to pull away late. Pick: Falcons 27, Raiders 17