Idaho Democrats sought gains in purple areas. They suffered big losses instead

BOISE – What started out as a night full of hope at the Idaho Democratic Party’s election watch party in downtown Boise went south quickly as results rolled in.

The first three speakers of the night – Democratic Chair Lauren Necochea, Boise Mayor Lauren McLean and Idaho Democratic Party Executive Director Jared DeLoof – spoke to a full crowd between sets of energetic songs. They spoke of the chance for Democratic lawmakers to make gains in the Idaho Legislature and Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances of winning the White House.

Within a few short hours, the feeling had changed.

Democrats have long struggled to win races in Idaho, a state where Republicans have had supermajority control of the Legislature for decades. Going into the night, Republicans controlled 83% of seats in the two chambers – the kind of majority that allows the GOP caucus to write laws as it pleases.

A few areas in the state remained decidedly or flickeringly blue before Tuesday, especially parts of Boise. In those areas with glimmers of blue, Democrats hoped to pick up and defend seats. They outraised the state’s Republican Party by a 2.5:1 margin and drew $70,000 from the Democratic National Committee to invest in minority voter turnout.

Even in deep-red regions, they put forward a candidate in every district (though not every race), without which Republicans win seats automatically.

Party leaders also hoped to benefit from investment and energy due to the high-profile presidential race.

Instead, they got hammered in a state that is getting more and more red.

Democratic lawmakers in purple districts fall to Republicans

In West Boise’s District 15, Republicans successfully picked off Democratic Sen. Rick Just in his rematch with Codi Galloway, while defending Rep. Dori Healey in a challenge from newcomer Shari Baber.

In central Idaho, Republicans knocked out an incumbent Democrat: Rep. Ned Burns of Bellevue. While the Wood River Valley is generally reliably Democratic, since the 2020 redistricting, the district swoops farther south into Jerome, picking up more Republican votes.

One of the races national Democrats invested in was a House race in Pocatello, where Democrats had two of three seats in District 29. The party was looking to build off that and sweep the district, and the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee gave Mary Shea the boost of its endorsement.

Shea, however, lost to House Majority Caucus Chair Dustin Manwaring, and incumbent Democrat Rep. Nate Roberts lost his seat. The party kept one seat, that of Sen. James Ruchti, who ran unopposed.

In the Moscow area, Democrats looked to bring together left-leaning voters in the college town of Moscow with Native American voters on the Nez Perce Reservation to win seats in District 6.

Trish Carter-Goodheart, a member of the tribe, challenged Republican Rep. Lori McCann, but lost in a race that was not close. In the area’s Senate race, incumbent Sen. Dan Foreman, R-Moscow, courted controversy at a debate forum when he yelled at Carter-Goodheart to “go back to where you came from,” according to attendees. When the moment began to draw attention in news reports, Foreman posted on Facebook that he had been “race-baited,” and went on to say that homosexuality is an “abomination.”

He beat back his Democratic challenger, Julia Parker, by more than three points.

In all, Republicans won 90 of 105 seats in the Legislature, cutting Democrats’ proportion down to just 14% of the chambers.

“We’re here to save the state and keep it bright, bright red,” GOP Chair Dorothy Moon told a jubilant crowd at a hotel in Meridian.

Democrats say legislative races were beyond their ‘grasp’

The presidential election apparently complicated Democrats’ efforts in Idaho, even though there was never any doubt which candidate would get the state’s four electoral votes.

“It’s deeply troubling to see Democrats lose ground in the Idaho Legislature just as Republican extremists are gaining strength,” Necochea told the Idaho Statesman by email. “Presidential election years typically favor Republicans and bring out voters who might be unfamiliar with their legislative candidates. The recent influx of conservative migration has shifted Idaho’s electorate further right, even beyond traditional conservative values, making it more extreme.

“Unfortunately, our candidates were swept up in a national wave that leaned heavily toward Trump and Republicans, pushing results several points beyond polling expectations and costing us races that should have been within our grasp.”

Necochea said the consequences of stronger Republican control in the Legislature would be significant: jeopardizing the state’s LAUNCH scholarships, and making school vouchers and a repeal of the state’s Medicaid expansion more likely.

“At least four women have died nationally due to extreme abortion bans just like Idaho’s, yet Republican politicians are refusing to budge,” she added. “The stakes are high, and retreat is not an option. We will double down, working even harder as we look toward next year and the midterms.”