Harris’s momentum in California energizes House Democrats, rattles GOP

HANFORD, Calif. - Democrats are increasingly confident that having Kamala Harris as their presidential nominee could bolster them in key California congressional races and help sweep Republicans out of the House.

To win back the majority, House Democrats need to flip only four GOP seats, making California’s five most competitive races enough, in theory, to reclaim control. Democrats here believe the Harris-powered surge in energy, fundraising and volunteers will help clinch these races.

“People have more pep in their step for sure,” said Rudy Salas, the Democrat challenging GOP Rep. David G. Valadao in California’s agriculture-rich Central Valley. “I tell people, we just got to make sure that we use that energy to carry us through November 5.”

Though Harris herself has not devoted much time to rallying Democrats back home, her momentum is a source of concern for Republicans in the Golden State and beyond.

House Republicans are particularly concerned about losing ground in suburban California districts, according to two people familiar with the situation who spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly about these races.

House Republicans also worry that former president Donald Trump is not doing enough to cast Harris as an extension of President Joe Biden and convince voters that high prices, threats to public safety and immigration would continue under her watch.

“Numbers were looking really, really good for Republicans and then [Biden] dropped out, so I think that helps Harris,” Valadao said, echoing a sentiment shared by several House Republican lawmakers and strategists. “And I feel like Trump’s team needs to do a better job of associating the two.”

Of the five competitive districts, which stretch across the rural Central Valley down south to the suburbs of Los Angeles and Orange County, Biden won four by several percentage points in 2020, while Trump won Rep. Ken Calvert’s Coachella Valley district by one point.

Republicans flipped the House in 2022 in part because voters in reliably blue states such as California, New York and Oregon felt confident that state legislatures would protect abortion access and sent Republicans to Washington with a mandate to focus on other issues.

Unlike Democrats, who are proudly running with Harris, Republicans here must try to separate themselves from their nominee and his far-right MAGA movement to convince Harris voters that they’re worth reelecting.

“I don’t win without ticket splitters,” said Valadao, who voted to impeach Trump for his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. “It’s been the story of my life.”

These California districts are not sure bets for Democrats and remain competitive. While Harris reinvigorated a depressed Democratic base when she became the party’s nominee, statewide polls show Harris running behind Biden’s 2020 numbers in some districts.

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) made two trips to California in October to campaign or fundraise for Republicans in the five toss-ups and other districts that lean competitive, while Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) swung by three Southern California suburban districts.

Democrats see pickup opportunities in the suburbs, such as California’s 27th, 41st and 45th districts, which are represented by GOP Reps. Mike Garcia, Calvert and Michelle Steel, respectively. Steel’s Orange County district in particular began to heat up after Harris became the nominee, leading Republicans to move resources from other nearby races to shore up her bid.

While some of the voters in these districts left Los Angeles because of high cost-of-living and crime rates, many are socially liberal. That may be why abortion messaging appears to be resonating in these districts - and why some vulnerable Republicans have moderated their positions.

Even before Harris became the nominee, Republican strategists acknowledged that George Whitesides, Garcia’s Democratic challenger, was mobilizing voters in a way that made the district more competitive.

At his Santa Clarita campaign office earlier this month, Whitesides joked to over 100 volunteers that they must have already found the 333 new voters they need to beat Garcia’s 2020 margin. The weekend before, his campaign knocked on 8,000 doors, it said.

Whitesides’s challenge is stopping split-ticket voters who are loyal to Garcia. He often approaches them by touting his record bringing jobs to the district when he was CEO of Virgin Galactic.

“I just say that I’m my own person, and I’ll vote however I think will benefit the district,” he said. “Whether it’s business or national security I think I clearly won’t be afraid to vote how we think we need to benefit the district.”

In the campaign’s final weeks, Garcia, a former U.S. Navy pilot, is messaging on security - national, economic and local - while also trying to tie Whitesides to the far left.

“My district has 29 percent Republican registration, which means that, literally, 15 to 20 percent of the Democrats vote for me in order for me to win,” he said in an interview. “We need to be able to make sure we’re communicating my record to everyone.”

A bit north, the climate is slightly more favorable to Republicans, and Valadao believes he will benefit from Trump turning out conservatives. In his district, rows of farms proudly display large Trump-Vance signs that read “Make Goods and Food Affordable Again.” Several lower-income and rural counties here went for Trump, even though the district went for Biden.

A recent poll from the University of California at Berkeley shows Harris slightly behind Biden’s favorability in California around the same time four years ago, in part because she is underperforming with Latino voters. While Harris continues to lead Trump with Latinos, 54 percent to 35 percent, that is 20 percentage points lower than the support Biden received in 2020, according to exit polls.

That gap could make a difference in Valadao’s and GOP Rep. John Duarte’s districts, where Latinos make up over 70 percent of the population. Both Republican incumbents are able to attack their Democratic opponents for their record in the state legislature, which locals blame for raising the gas tax and high housing costs.

Democrats believe Valadao could be the toughest to unseat. He campaigns on his success getting funding for agricultural projects and his strong ties to the district, where he is often seen on his family’s dairy farm.

It is possible that none of that will matter if Democrats can successfully turn out their voters. Valadao benefits from low voter turnout in a district that has twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans.

Strong Democratic turnout could wipe out vulnerable Republicans - like it did Valadao during the 2018 anti-Trump “blue wave” midterms. He won back his seat in 2020 even though Biden won his district.

“It’s all about turnout,” said Salas, Valadao’s opponent. “If we could get north of 60 percent, which isn’t unheard of for presidential election turnout, I think things look a lot better for us.”

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Leigh Ann Caldwell contributed to this report.