These states could redistrict before the 2026 midterms
The redistricting arms race sparked by President Donald Trump’s push to draw new congressional lines in Texas has both parties scrambling to rethink the political map.
The Texas state House passed a new map Wednesday that could give Republicans five new congressional seats, and at least six other states are potential targets for mid-decade map tweaks ahead of the midterms. California was the second state to produce a new map, countering the GOP shifts in Texas with five more seats favorable to Democrats.
But implementing new maps is easier said than done. Many states are bound by laws that dictate when and how redistricting can happen. States typically draw new district lines once a decade, after each census, or if a map is struck down in court. There is also a tight timeline to get changes into place before the midterms in 2026.
Republicans hold a 219-212 House majority, with four vacancies, and any change to the congressional map could determine which party controls the 119th Congress. Right now, the math favors Republicans, as red states have more opportunities to shift district lines to their advantage before the midterms.
Here’s a look at some of the potential targets and the steps involved to change political boundaries in these states.
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Texas
The redistricting battle began with Texas, where Trump originally pressed Gov. Greg Abbott (R) to draw a new congressional boundaries with more safely red seats. The state legislature has control over drawing district boundaries, so the governor called a special session in early August to create and vote on a new map. The resulting map would give Republicans five potential pickups in the House.
A majority of the state’s Democratic lawmakers broke quorum by leaving the state, delaying a vote on the new map. Republicans subsequently kicked off a second special session after the first session ended Aug. 15, and most Democrats who had fled the state returned to Texas on Monday. The map ultimately passed the state House on Wednesday, clearing the way for the state Senate to take up the map and send it to the governor for final approval.
Republicans control 25 of Texas’s 38 House seats. The new map is more partisan - each of these new districts recorded double-digit vote margins in the 2024 presidential election, so none will be considered especially competitive. Two Democratic House members from Texas - Rep. Henry Cuellar in the 28th District and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in the 34th - currently represent districts that split the ticket and favored Trump in 2024. Both districts have been redrawn to shift further to the right.
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California
California was the second state to jump into the redistricting battle. In response to the potential Republican pickups in Texas, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and state Democrats have proposed a new map that would potentially turn five House seats blue, evening the score with the actions in Texas.
But implementing any new maps off-schedule in California won’t be as easy as in Texas. California normally uses an independent commission to draw congressional and state legislative districts, which was put in place to make map drawing less political. Without using the independent commission, Democrats need permission from voters before they can establish new lines, but Newsom has said the state would move forward with the new map only if Texas uses its proposed map. State lawmakers are expected to vote this week on scheduling a Nov. 4 special election for California voters to decide on the maps.
The current map in California is deeply blue, with Democrats holding all but nine of the state’s 52 House seats. But many of the districts are considered competitive. In 2024, the presidential vote margin in 15 congressional districts was 10 points or less. The proposed map introduced by Democrats shifted most of the state’s competitive districts toward the left.
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Indiana
Vice President JD Vance visited GOP-controlled Indiana this month to discuss redrawing its congressional map, which could net Republicans one more seat.
State law limits congressional map drawing to the first legislative session after the decennial census; however, Republicans have a supermajority in the state legislature and could easily change the law. GOP state lawmakers have seemed hesitant to shake up the state’s political boundaries, but increased pressure from the White House could shift their stance.
The most vulnerable seat is likely in the 1st District, which includes the edges of suburban Chicago. Rep. Frank J. Mrvan (D) won reelection there by eight points in 2024, but the district favored Democrat Kamala Harris by less than half a percentage point in the 2024 race.
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Ohio
Redistricting is already on the table this year in Ohio, as the state is required to create a new congressional map ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Congressional maps in Ohio must be approved by a supermajority in the legislature, but neither party has been able to agree on a new map since the state Supreme Court struck down the map drawn after the 2020 Census. In 2022, the Ohio Redistricting Commission adopted a map that could be used only until 2026.
The timing in Ohio couldn’t be better for Republicans pushing to pick up more House seats ahead of 2026. Three of the state’s Democratic-controlled districts had single-digit vote margins in the 2024 presidential election. Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Strong Sykes are probably the most vulnerable Democrats in any new maps, as both won by narrow margins in 2024.
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Illinois
Illinois jumped into the redistricting story when Gov. JB Pritzker (D) invited Texas House Democrats to stay in suburban Chicago after they left their state to stall the Republicans redistricting efforts.
Pritzker has been vocal about the redistricting battle nationally, and Illinois state lawmakers have full control of the map-drawing process. But the impact of any map changes could be limited here - Democrats hold 14 out of the state’s 17 House seats, and the map is already carved largely in Democrats’ favor.
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Missouri
Republicans are considering Missouri a possible target for redistricting ahead of 2026. The legislature could introduce new maps in September during its annual veto session.
State Republicans may try to squeeze an additional red seat by carving up the 5th District, currently held by Rep. Emanuel Cleaver II (D). This solid blue district, which includes Kansas City, heavily favored Harris in 2024.
Carving up Kansas City for a new GOP seat would leave only one solid blue district in Missouri - the 1st District around St. Louis. That is a majority-minority district and protected by the Voting Rights Act.
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Florida
Florida’s congressional map has shifted in favor of Republicans in recent years. The GOP picked up four additional seats after Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) pushed state lawmakers to redraw the map in 2022.
Florida House Speaker Daniel Perez (R) told state lawmakers he is creating a “select committee” on congressional redistricting, and a few more districts could shift toward the GOP. But the state constitution has a “Fair Districts” amendment that says districts cannot be drawn to favor any one political party, and any changes to the map could be challenged in court. Five congressional districts had 2024 presidential vote margins within 10 points, and all of those seats are held by Democrats.
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Maeve Reston, Patrick Marley, Molly Hennessy-Fiske and Yvonne Wingett Sanchez contributed to this report. Data analysis by Lenny Bronner. Presidential results for the proposed new districts are from a Washington Post analysis of 2024 precinct election results and data from Redistricting Partners.
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