Commentary: Rams are justified favorites Thursday vs. Seahawks

SEATTLE – Some might say that gambling talk has become too prominent in the NFL these days. Betting shows permeate the airwaves, as do advertisements for where to place your wager.

Still, even those not seeking action on a given ballgame want to know who’s favored and by how much. And on Thursday night – for now, at least – it’s the Rams by 1.5 points over the Seahawks.

For good reason.

Yes, despite Seattle winning eight of its past nine, it still seems to be chasing that blue-and-gold coated team from L.A. Even though the Seahawks’ league-leading point differential (+163) is four points better than that of the Rams, their NFC West rival has played superior football.

Both teams enter Thursday night’s showdown with an 11-3 record. Both have balled out throughout the season on both sides of the ball.

And though the Seahawks could quickly change the narrative with a win on their home field, right now L.A. just looks a little bit better.

Why?

For one, the quarterback. No doubt that Sam Darnold has been an upgrade over Geno Smith for the Seahawks. Darnold has the fifth-best passer rating in the NFL (102.0) and swiftly led his team down the field Sunday to set up Jason Myers’ game-winning field goal. But Darnold also missed on a red-zone pass to Cooper Kupp that might have sealed the win one possession earlier. And despite a clean stat sheet Sunday, he leads the NFL with 16 turnovers.

More than anything, though, he’s no Matthew Stafford. The Rams QB leads the league with a 112.2 rating. He is second in yards (3,722), whereas Darnold is sixth at 3,433. More important, Stafford ranks 23rd in the NFL in turnovers with a paltry eight. Darnold’s four interceptions vs. the Rams last month were the primary culprit in Seattle’s 21-19 loss. You get the feeling Stafford won’t do something similar at Lumen Field on Thursday.

Second, there’s the run game. One team excels there, the other does not. The Rams’ 4.7 yards per carry is eighth in the NFL. The Seahawks’ 3.9 yards per carry is 27th. Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald spoke strongly about “running the rock” before the season began, but they have had to rely on their passing game to score most the season.

On Sunday, Seattle running back Kenneth Walker III was held to 17 yards on nine carries. The week before, 29 yards on 10 carries. The Seahawks’ inability to get into the end zone nearly cost them in Sunday’s 18-16 win over the Philip Rivers-led Colts. The much mightier Rams won’t be as forgiving.

Third, there is the schedule. L.A. has dominated quality teams – many the Seahawks also played. Seattle beat the Jaguars (10-4) 20-12. The Rams beat them 35-7. The Bucs (7-7) beat the Seahawks 38-35. The Rams beat them 34-7. San Francisco bested the Seahawks 17-13 at Lumen. And though the Rams fell to the 49ers in overtime in their first meeting, they clobbered them 42-26 in Santa Clara, Calif., in their rematch.

Throw in L.A.’s 41-34 win over Detroit on Sunday – a game that was 41-27 with less than three minutes left – and you have a team that’s been more impressive against quality opponents.

That said, the Rams did have a slip-up against Carolina three Sundays ago, which is why they are tied with the Seahawks for the best record in the NFC. Seattle may have gotten lucky beating Indy sans any touchdowns Sunday, but it hasn’t let an easy one slip away all season.

As for their defenses? Well, the Seahawks’ 17.3 points allowed per game ranks second in the NFL. The Rams’ 18.6 is tied for the third. The teams were essentially even defensively going into Sunday, but the Seahawks faced a 44-year-old quarterback while the Rams faced the league’s highest-scoring offense in the Lions. From where I sit, they’re virtually a lock on that side of the ball.

But nobody is a lock for a win Thursday. Seattle probably would have beaten the Rams in their first meeting had Darnold thrown just two or three interceptions as opposed to four. The Seahawks limited Stafford to 130 yards passing that game – his lowest total of the season by far. Either team can win this, and the one that does may very well be on its way to a first-round bye in the playoffs.

But right now, the Rams have been that much better than Seattle. They are the favorites until proven otherwise.