NCAA Tournament bubble watch: Georgia leads SEC surge, Gonzaga can climb out of danger zone Saturday
The extremes of life in Bubble Town, USA, can leave anyone with whiplash. A resume that looks to be on the rise one week can quickly crumble, and an ailing team can suddenly flip its NCAA Tournament outlook with a seismic win or two.
Perhaps no conference better exemplifies this than the SEC. As of only a week ago, the historically dominant league had seen a gap building between the top nine secure locks and the five perilously positioned bubble squads. The conference looked more likely to receive 10 bids than the 12 or 13 it needed to break records.
Fast forward to this week, and suddenly that 14-team dream is back in play. Entering Thursday, our SEC bubble hopefuls – Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Georgia – pulled off massive Q1 wins over the league’s top nine, defibrillating any weakening at-large hopes. We may yet get an SEC stampede on Selection Sunday.
The SEC bubblers are not the only ones that had big weeks, however. Indiana, lame duck coach and all, shellacked Purdue; San Diego State and Boise State took down Mountain West top dogs New Mexico and Utah State; and VCU, Drake and Cincinnati all picked up important victories. BYU vaulted itself above the fray entirely with a tremendous road win at Arizona. It was a bad week for those who decry each year’s current crop of at-large contenders as the “worst bubble ever.”
In less encouraging news, Baylor and (to a lesser extent) Gonzaga have slid down into true bubble land. The Bears, at just 16-12 overall, have taken down Disaster’s cell phone number and are considering making the call, while the Zags avoided true panic with a Tuesday night win at Santa Clara. Still, both are in the danger zone.
The lesson: Do not get comfortable with your present standing – good or bad. Fortunes can change quickly around these parts.
Here are some ground rules for navigating the Bubble Watch below:
Teams are listed alphabetically within their sections. (Editor’s note: The analysis of bubble teams below have been trimmed to include GU opponents, or teams with connections to the Zags.)
Should Be In teams are a few wins from Lock status and not really in much danger of missing the dance right now.
In the Mix teams are the true bubble cases.
On the Fringe teams are a win or two away from true bubble consideration - a win away from being a win away.
Resume metrics are backward-looking and try to measure a team’s accomplishments. Think: “What has this team done?” These metrics are more important for selection to the field.
Quality metrics are forward-looking and attempt to project future performance. Think: “How good is this team?” These metrics are more influential for seeding.
Movement
Up to Lock: Clemson, Creighton, Louisville, Oregon, Saint Mary’s, Texas Tech, UCLA
Up to Should Be In: BYU, Vanderbilt
Up to In the Mix: None
Added to On the Fringe: None
Down to In the Mix: Baylor, Gonzaga
Down to On the Fringe: Pitt
Dropped from On the Fringe: Bradley, Iowa, Kansas State, Santa Clara, USC
ACC
Locks: Clemson, Duke, Louisville
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: North Carolina, SMU, Wake Forest
On the Fringe: Pitt
In The Mix
Wake Forest
Solid resume metrics.
Poor quality metrics, only one win over a likely tournament team.
The Demon Deacons, who feature former Zags Hunter Sallis (18.6 ppg) and Efton Reid III (8.8 ppg), took two more losses outside of Q1 over the past week, falling on the road to a disappointing NC State squad (Q2) and then at home against Virginia (Q3). The Deacs’ defense, their foundation for most of the season, failed them in two crucial spots. Those defeats undercut the primary strengths of Wake’s profile: a lack of bad losses. Steve Forbes’ squad is in dire straits now, and it must handle Notre Dame on Saturday. Then, Wake gets its ultimate home-run swing: a visit to Cameron Indoor and Duke on Big Monday.
Big 12
Locks: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech
Should Be In: BYU
In the Mix: Baylor, Cincinnati, TCU, West Virginia
On the Fringe: Utah
Should Be In
Baylor
No bad losses, terrific quality metrics, five Q1 wins.
Possess 12 total losses, well under .500 against top two quadrants.
Welcome down to the bubble muck, Bears. An 0-2 week on the road – 76-74 at Colorado, 69-67 at Cincinnati – drops Baylor into the danger zone with just a 16-12 overall record. The two losses came by a total of four points, which means Baylor’s quality metrics are still in great shape, but this resume is that of a true bubbler. The Bears are now a less extreme version of the team that crushed them 101-63 on the first night of the season, Gonzaga. They absolutely must stabilize this week in two winnable games: hosting Oklahoma State on Saturday, traveling to TCU next Tuesday. If not, a freefall out of the field is alarmingly realistic.
West Virginia
Four Q1A wins (tied for best of the bubble teams), no bad losses.
Still under .500 against the top two quadrants.
The Mountaineers, who beat GU 86-78 on Nov. 27 in the Bahamas, continue to beat the teams they should (TCU at home by 18) and lose to the teams they should (Texas Tech on the road by 22). Their prior work against top opponents, especially away from home, gives them the breathing room to stay in the field via 1-1 weeks. A massive road trip to the Beehive State now looms; if the Mountaineers can post another 1-1 split while navigating the treacherous elevation of BYU (Saturday) and Utah (next Tuesday), they will step up to Should Be In status. At that point, they would have alleviated the risk of an end-of-season collapse.
Big East
Locks: Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s
Should Be In: UConn
In the Mix: Xavier
On the Fringe: None
UConn
The Huskies, who beat the Zags 77-71 in Seattle on Dec. 14, remained just slightly above the bubble frenzy after dispatching Georgetown on Wednesday night. Sunday at St. John’s was a missed opportunity to reach safer ground but not a damaging loss in any way. The Huskies have picked up enough key wins to be in solid shape (four Q1A wins is no small feat), so as long as they pick up another win or two, their three-peat dreams will last past Selection Sunday, at minimum.
Big Ten
Locks: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio State
On the Fringe: None
Indiana
Zero losses outside Q1, very competitive resume metrics.
Need more overall wins, only a 4-11 record in Q1 games.
Mike Woodson refuses to go gentle into that good night. His Hoosiers – who fell to Gonzaga 89-73 on Nov. 28 in the Bahamas – raged, raged against the dying of the light, pulling off a massive (and convincing) home win over reeling rival Purdue and backing it up with a necessary win against Penn State. That 2-0 sequence launched them into many NCAA Tournament fields, while our own Joe Rexrode had them as his First Team Out (this week’s Bracket Watch was published prior to the Penn State win). Consistency has escaped Indiana this year, but the Hoosiers will need to find a way to split their upcoming Pacific Northwest road trip to remain in the thick of the at-large discussion.
SEC
Locks: Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Should Be In: Vanderbilt
In the Mix: Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas
On the Fringe: None
The Rest
Locks: Saint Mary’s
Should Be In: Memphis, New Mexico, Utah State
In the Mix: Boise State, Drake, George Mason, Gonzaga, San Diego State, San Francisco, VCU, UC Irvine, UC San Diego
On the Fringe: Dayton, North Texas
Boise State
Two key nonconference wins, solid predictive metrics.
Two Q3 losses, resume metrics still slightly low.
The Broncos’ late rise into a true at-large contention continued this week, as they captured wins at Nevada and against Utah State to build an even more compelling case. They are now within reach of former Gonzaga assistant Leon Rice’s fourth straight NCAA Tournament bid, an unprecedented accomplishment at Boise State. The Broncos’ schedule this week holds two Q4 road games at Fresno State (Saturday) and Air Force (next Tuesday); they have to avoid a disastrous loss while cheering against their bubble rivals across the country.
Gonzaga
Solid winning percentage in Q1+Q2 games.
Poor quality metrics.
A second loss to WCC rival Saint Mary’s over the weekend pushed Gonzaga into concerning territory. Crucially, though, the Bulldogs avoided a second WCC sweep by smashing Santa Clara on the road on Tuesday night. That gave the Zags their first Q1 win since Nov. 18 and stabilized a concerning downward trajectory. If they can get another important road win at San Francisco on Saturday, they will likely avoid a true bubble flirtation.
San Diego State
Home run neutral-site win against Houston, elite nonconference SOS, 8-4 road/neutral record.
Middling predictive metrics, one Q3 loss.
San Diego State – 80-67 losers to GU on Nov. 18 – had a strong 1-1 week, falling just short of a huge road win at Utah State but managing to bounce back with a home win over Mountain West leader New Mexico. That keeps the Aztecs comfortably on the right side of the bubble, but a dangerous closing slate with little upside still makes their path dicey. Road contests at feisty Wyoming (Saturday) and UNLV (Tuesday) do not offer much upside, but the Aztecs need to keep winning to stay ahead of other late-charging bubblers.
San Francisco
Clean resume with no bad losses.
Poor quality metrics, only one Q1 win.
The Dons have hung around the periphery of the bubble party, biding their time until their season-ending showdown with Gonzaga this coming Saturday. They added a Q2 win at feisty Oregon State late on Wednesday night, but the truth is that San Francisco probably cannot get an at-large bid without toppling the WCC powerhouse Zags. Also at stake in that game: the No. 2 seed in the WCC tournament, and with it a bye all the way to the semifinals. It is truly make-or-break time for the upstart Dons.