Ahead of Trump’s return to office, Ukraine and Russia battle for Kursk

KYIV – With nine days to go before President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, Russia and Ukraine are locked in an intense battle to control a patch of Russia’s Kursk region that is expected to be a key negotiating point in the peace talks Trump has pledged to hold.

Ukrainian troops launched a counterattack in the region last weekend, attempting to retake some of the territory it first seized last summer and then lost – with the head of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office boasting on social media that Russia was “getting what it deserves.” The assault came after Russia started sending thousands of North Korean troops into battle in Kursk last month, using them in what Ukrainian troops have described as waves of cannon fodder.

On Saturday, Zelenskyy announced Ukraine had taken two North Korean troops prisoner. It’s the first time North Koreans were transferred to Kyiv for questioning.

But roughly a week into the new operation in Kursk, little progress appears to have been made, with Ukraine making very modest gains in some areas but Russia advancing steadily along the left flank and taking prisoners. Ukraine has maintained a foothold in the region since August but has steadily lost territory as Russia, intent on retaking it, focuses intense firepower there.

“Those were difficult days,” a Ukrainian soldier deployed to the region wrote in a message, speaking about the first days of the counterattack on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the operation. “Russians attacked from different directions at the same time. They succeeded in some of them. … They crossed the border (into Ukraine) in a few points, but we managed to retake the positions.”

In recent days, Russian military bloggers have reported that Russian troops were successful in retaking territory in Kursk. “The iron offensive is unstoppable,” one channel wrote. Andrei Rudenko, a state media journalist and military blogger, wrote on Telegram that Ukraine’s offensive “has failed miserably.” Bloggers also posted footage of Ukrainian troops they had taken as prisoners.

Ukraine’s continued focus on Kursk indicates how important Kyiv believes it is to hold on to the territory, especially as Trump’s impending arrival could increase pressure for both sides to come to the negotiating table. Ukrainian officials have also warned that if their troops were to retreat back across the border, the 60,000 troops Kyiv says Russia has deployed would follow them into Ukraine and occupy more land.

The August incursion into Kursk marks Ukraine’s only clear battlefield advance in the past year, making it even more important to Ukraine.

“There is a clear incentive for Ukraine to try to retain Kursk for as long as possible, so it makes sense to conduct small-scale operations to improve their positions so they can retain it longer … and try to demonstrate that they still have offensive options in this war,” said Michael Kofman, a military analyst at the Virginia-based Center for Naval Analyses.

Russia, meanwhile, is eager to retake the territory, but has still maintained much of its military might in Ukraine’s east, where Russian forces said they captured the Ukrainian town of Kurakhove this week. Ukrainian officials denied those accounts and described the battle as ongoing.

As Trump’s inauguration approaches, Moscow, which has the upper hand in manpower and resources, has fewer reasons than Ukraine to see his taking office as an immediate game changer.

“There has been a long-running narrative since the election that both sides are going to try to substantially improve their positions ahead of Jan. 20,” Kofman said, describing it as a “fixation” that encourages “short-term thinking” about the war.

“There are signs of a Russian interest to meet with Trump, but that should not be confused with a willingness to negotiate. It’s unclear why Moscow would negotiate right now, given the trajectory of the war,” he said.

Ukrainian soldiers are aware of Trump’s looming inauguration, said Oleh, 30, a soldier in Ukraine’s 8th Special Operations Forces Regiment, who is deployed to the region. “There is a political aspect in this operation,” he said. “We cannot ignore it.” He spoke on the condition that only his first name be used in line with Ukrainian military protocol.

But the main concern in recent weeks has been Russia’s use of North Korean troops, bolstering Moscow’s offensive capabilities in Kursk. The troops, supported by Russian artillery and drones, have moved in large groups toward Ukrainian positions. Unlike Russian troops, who usually move in smaller groups to avoid detection, the soldiers often appeared to ignore drones flying above and moved ahead even as their comrades were wounded or killed beside them.

Russian troops have often followed to stabilize those gains.

The fairly simple tactic of storming Ukrainian positions with huge numbers of troops has been fairly successful, Oleh said. Still, he said his unit has also managed to inflict considerable losses on Russian troops, including on Russia’s 810th Marine Infantry Brigade, which may have forced Russia to turn to North Korean troops sooner than it had planned.

The use of massed assaults of North Korean troops also means that Russia preserves its own soldiers.

“In this scenario they can save Russian troops for other tasks at the front line, not to send them on the most dangerous missions,” Oleh said. Ukraine, meanwhile, has taken advantage of communication challenges between Russian and North Korean troops to retake some positions in Kursk, as what Oleh described as confusion between the two groups appears to have slowed Russian efforts to stabilize territory after assaults.

Last month, Oleh said, 400 to 500 North Korean troops launched an assault on Ukrainian positions, outnumbering the Ukrainians stationed there by at least 6 to 1. The battle lasted eight hours, until the Ukrainian side ran out of bullets and had to retreat, he said.

The Ukrainians took one North Korean as a prisoner of war and provided him first aid, Oleh said, but the soldier died of his wounds before he could be interrogated. Other North Korean troops have killed themselves with grenades rather than face Ukrainian capture, he said. Many others were left dead or wounded on the battlefield.

The North Korean soldiers appear to operate with an entirely different mindset and approach than the Russian troops. “They are very fresh,” Oleh said. “When Russians assault our positions and experience losses, they retreat. But North Koreans just keep moving forward.”