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Spokane, Washington  Est. May 19, 1883

Coldest inauguration forecast since Reagan’s in 1985 forces Trump’s indoors

Architect of the Capitol workers walk through the Rotunda in the U.S. Capitol building on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., on April 29, 2021. President-elect has called for Monday’s inauguration to be moved from the Capitol steps outdoors to inside.  (SAMUEL CORUM/AFP/Getty Images North America/TNS)
By Jason Samenow and Ian Livingston Washington Post

Donald Trump’s inauguration will be moved indoors because of the dangerously cold weather predicted for Monday. Temperatures will not get much above 20 degrees and factoring in howling winds, it will feel like the single digits.

Trump’s inauguration is poised to be the most frigid since President Ronald Reagan’s in 1985, when it was so cold that the swearing-in ceremony was moved inside. It will be even colder than it was during Barack Obama’s inauguration in 2009, when the high temperature was 30 degrees, the low 19, and wind chills were in the teens.

“There is an Arctic blast sweeping the Country,” Trump wrote on Truth Social midday Friday. “I don’t want to see people hurt, or injured, in any way. It is dangerous conditions for the tens of thousands of Law Enforcement, First Responders, Police K9s and even horses, and hundreds of thousands of supporters that will be outside for many hours on the 20th (In any event, if you decide to come, dress warmly!).”

Trump added that the inaugural address, prayers and other speeches will be delivered in the Capitol Rotunda as they were during the 1985 inauguration. A live viewing event will be held at Capital One Arena.

The wintry conditions threaten to be about as harsh as they get in the D.C. area. The ground may be covered in fresh snow from a storm Sunday – snow that strong gusts may whip through the cold air.

The inauguration temperature forecast has trended lower all week as computer model forecasts for the intensity of the cold have escalated. Bone-chilling cold is set to invade much of the eastern United States as a lobe of the polar vortex dives south from Canada.

How cold and windy will it be Monday?

Temperatures early Monday will hover in the mid- to upper teens and will only slowly rise into the low 20s by noon, when the swearing-in ceremony takes place.

Winds will be sustained at 10 to 20 mph, with gusts of 20 to 35 mph. That will make it feel about 10 degrees colder than the actual air temperature. If a gust surpasses 28 mph (reached during Joe Biden’s presidential inauguration) at noon, it will mark the strongest inaugural gust since the 35 mph measured at Reagan’s 1985 inauguration.

While the cold will be teeth-chattering, skies should be partly to mostly sunny, with no precipitation expected.

Here’s an hour-by-hour forecast of the temperature, wind gust and wind chill, based on National Weather Service data:

  • 8 a.m.: temperature: 19 degrees, wind gust: 23 mph, wind chill: 6 degrees.
  • 9 a.m.: temperature: 20 degrees, wind gust: 28 mph, wind chill: 6 degrees.
  • 10 a.m.: temperature: 21 degrees, wind gust: 32 mph, wind chill: 7 degrees.
  • 11 a.m.: temperature: 22 degrees, wind gust: 33 mph, wind chill: 8 degrees.
  • 12 p.m.: temperature: 22 degrees, wind gust: 33 mph, wind chill: 8 degrees.
  • 1 p.m.: temperature: 22 degrees, wind gust: 32 mph, wind chill: 9 degrees.
  • 2 p.m.: temperature: 22 degrees, wind gust: 31 mph, wind chill: 8 degrees.
  • 3 p.m.: temperature: 22 degrees, wind gust: 31 mph, wind chill: 8 degrees.
  • 4 p.m.: temperature: 21 degrees, wind gust: 29 mph, wind chill: 8 degrees.

On Monday evening, air temperatures will fall back into the teens, with wind chills plunging to near zero.

The cold will become even more intense after Inauguration Day. Subzero wind chills are expected Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

On Tuesday, the National Weather Service is predicting a maximum temperature of 21 degrees, which would equal the District’s coldest day in about a decade (the last high temperature of 20 degrees or lower occurred on Feb. 16, 2015). Wednesday’s predicted high of 19 degrees would match the coldest since Jan. 16, 2009, when the high was 18.

How does cold compare to past inaugurations?

Trump’s upcoming inauguration – while frigid – will not be as cold as Reagan’s on Jan. 21, 1985, which was the coldest on record. The temperature in D.C. that morning dropped to minus-4 degrees (a record for the date) and climbed to only 7 degrees at noon. It was so cold that it forced Reagan to take the oath of office indoors, and the inaugural parade was canceled.

The other particularly cold January inaugurations were Obama’s in 2009 and President John F. Kennedy’s in 1961, when the high was 26 and the low 19. Kennedy’s inauguration followed a snowstorm that produced 8 inches the previous day.

But the chilly inaugurations of Obama and Kennedy were outdone by the second swearing-in of President Ulysses S. Grant on March 4, 1873. (Until 1937, inaugurations weren’t held until March 4, or March 5 if the 4th fell on a Sunday). The low temperature that morning was 4 degrees, and the high reached only 20. The 1873 inauguration remains Washington’s coldest March day on record.

Temperatures for this year’s inauguration will be about 15 to 25 degrees below normal. The District’s average high temperature for Jan. 20 is 45 degrees, and the average low is 30 degrees.

The weather this year will contrast sharply with Trump’s first inauguration in 2017, the fourth-warmest on record in January. The noon temperature was 48 degrees with overcast skies. Very light showers briefly fell shortly after the swearing-in ceremony began. The air will also be much colder compared with Biden’s inauguration in 2021; the swearing-in temperature was 42 degrees as a strong breeze gusted to 28 mph.

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Justin Grieser contributed to this report.

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Graphics:

https://washingtonpost.com/documents/14e2cde5-8681-4237-aabe-beac7a83341c.pdf

https://washingtonpost.com/documents/5820bcfa-3169-4077-8232-b75ea27620f3.pdf