Analysis: How Sonics’ return could take a step forward this week

LAS VEGAS – Time to place a bet in the gambling capital of America.

In what direction is the NBA headed with all this chatter over the past couple of months about finally having some real conversations on expansion?

Is a major step about to be taken that could lead to the return of the SuperSonics? Is the NBA going to turn the next several months into a procedural slog that continues the expansion conversation but at a plodding pace?

Or could a group of owners that hold all the cards prove unwilling to part with any of the money about to come their way through the NBA’s new media rights deals and stunt what seemed to be building momentum?

One thing is clear: Expansion will receive its most robust discussion among the NBA owners when they meet early this week for their annual summertime gathering in the desert during NBA Summer League. In previous years, the focus was on collective bargaining agreements and media rights deals.

This time it’s franchises – those for sale or recently sold (Celtics, Lakers, Trail Blazers) and those the league may potentially want to add in the future (Seattle, Las Vegas, etc.). It’s the place in the process the league and those in Seattle believed they would be by now after NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said last September he expected expansion to be addressed at some point during the 2024-25 season.

That didn’t happen. But it’s here in the summer and with the chance that Silver comes out of the meeting some type of path for expansion to follow.

It could be forward, rapidly. It could be forward, but via incremental and procedural steps. Or it could be a path backward in the eyes of Seattle fans yearning for a sooner-than-later return date for the NBA to the city.

Let’s look at three of the possible outcomes from the meetings and what each would mean:

Form some type of expansion committee and begin the procedural process

This would seem the most likely outcome and would fall in line with how most expansion proceedings are handled – although it’s been more than 20 years since the NBA last expanded.

This would be the procedural process. The committee would take the research and information provided by the league – which Silver has previously mentioned his office was already working on – and go through the process of examining and vetting any expressions of interest that the league may receive in the coming months from cities and ownership groups that want a team in their markets.

This group would likely make a recommendation to the entire board of governors about which way they should proceed. But it could take a while. Six months? A year?

If the NBA truly wants expansion, this route is probably the safest for the league as it would allow the league time to get its owners all on board – or nearly all on board – with the idea of cutting up the money from the new media deals by one or two more teams in exchange for the massive one-time payouts of an expansion fee.

Is this what gets announced?: This seems the most probable outcome, or something similar in form or wording. It won’t make fans happy who want a faster process, but it would be a first step forward.

Announce the entire expansion process is on pause and what that means for the future

This is the nightmare for fans in Seattle, because all those rumblings of 2030 and beyond for a team returning might be real. It would significantly blunt any momentum that’s been built over the past 12-18 months as the chatter of expansion has ramped up.

If the league announces that expansion talks are being put on hold, it means that Silver doesn’t have the support from enough owners to move forward, even incrementally. The new media rights deal is just about to kick in. The league has been heavily focused on its NBA-branded influence and expansion in Europe. There are reasons – distractions – as to why some owners may not have the appetite for tackling North American expansion at this time.

It’s a dangerous spot if the process is delayed. Will those who are willing now to pay an expansion fee expected to be in the $5 billion-plus range want to still be in the conversation if it’s kicked down the road a couple more years? How much higher does that expansion fee rise if the process is moved along? Will fans in Seattle feel used again and simply turn off their interest in the league if they believe they’ve been led astray by the comments from the commissioner over the past year?

That revenue guaranteed to each franchise by the NBA’s new media rights deal is a game-changer for some. Teams that broke even will now be profiting. Teams that were in the red may inch into the black. There are going to be owners who need to be convinced giving up a percentage of the cut is worth it.

Is this what gets announced?: Maybe. This would be bad news for fans in Seattle, who might finally say good riddance if expansion is significantly kicked down the road. It doesn’t feel likely, but there’s a bit of pessimism floating around, so it can’t be ruled out this happens.

Announce the league is bypassing a committee and is moving ahead on expansion

This is the dream scenario for Seattle because it means enough owners are solidly on board with expansion that the league doesn’t need to risk a few owners who want to be disruptive or greedy.

An announcement like this not only accelerates the process but heightens the chance that the awarding of an expansion franchise could be announced sometime in the next six months. A full-on push will be launched – think things like the Kraken season -ticket deposit drive from 2018 – and cities outside of the two favorites of Seattle and Las Vegas will likely jockey for their own candidacy.

But this kind of announcement means the owners are set on where this is all eventually going and there’s no need for a protracted process when the final destinations seem so clear.

This is the dream outcome for Sonics fans who want to see the green and gold playing at Climate Pledge Arena in the not-to-distant future.

Is this what gets announced?: This feels like the most unlikely result. Because it’s the dream, it seems the least likely to happen. If you’re a fan, be pleasantly surprised if it does.