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After surge during pandemic, homicides fall significantly

 Police Department officers investigate a scene in Brooklyn, April 06, 2025. An analysis released Thursday by the Council on Criminal Justice shows that the majority of crimes the council tracks are continuing to decrease in 42 U.S. cities.  (Dave Sanders for The New York Times)
By Ashley Wu and Tim Arango New York Times

Homicides in the United States have continued to fall sharply this year, according to a new analysis published Thursday by the Council on Criminal Justice, a nonprofit policy research organization, based on data from more than three dozen American cities.

If the trend continues for the remainder of the year, the United States could post a third straight year of record declines in homicides.

In fact, the new analysis suggests that the broad crime surge that took place during the pandemic has largely reversed itself. Of 13 categories of crimes that the council tracks, only one — car theft — remains higher than in 2019, the year before the pandemic. But the council’s study is limited to a sampling of 42 American cities whose police departments release data on a timely basis, and for which it can make comparisons to crime levels just before the pandemic.

Overall, the council found that homicide rates fell 17% in the first half of the year in 30 cities it tracked in that category. But some of the largest cities, ones with historically high murder rates, posted much larger drops, according to the study. Chicago’s rate is down 33% compared with the first six months of last year, St. Louis has fallen 22% in the same period, and Baltimore is down 24%.

Denver, which in 2021 recorded its highest number of homicides since 1981, had the sharpest decline in its homicide rate among the cities in the sample, down 45% compared with the same period last year, according to the study.

After surging in 2020 and 2021, homicides started to decline in 2022. But in 2023 they fell at what was then the fastest rate in recorded history, and they have been falling even faster ever since.

Criminologists say it’s too early to provide definitive explanations for the whipsawlike shifts in crime of recent years. Adding to the puzzle, analysts say, is that crime has fallen so sharply despite a surge in gun buying during the pandemic, and despite decreases in staffing levels at police agencies.

“Probably in the most simple form, it’s simply that the shock waves of the pandemic that contributed to the spike have largely dissipated,” said Adam Gelb, the president and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.