Wimbledon draw: Novak Djokovic’s path to tennis history and players to watch on the grass

Wimbledon begins Monday, and the draws for the men’s and women’s singles are intriguing, while also throwing up some blockbuster first-round matches.

Novak Djokovic goes in pursuit of his 25th Grand Slam title, while defending champion Carlos Alcaraz seeks the French Open, Queen’s and Wimbledon treble that has not been done since 2008.

On the women’s side, world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka enters as favorite after missing two recent editions, while 2023 champion Markéta Vondroušová is in form and ready to rekindle her fire in southwest London.

Djokovic’s route to 25th Grand Slam

The key to the men’s draw? What kind of path it would pave for seven-time champion Novak Djokovic’s pursuit of tennis history. His seeding, at No. 6, meant that he could have faced one of world No. 1 Jannik Sinner or defending champion Alcaraz in the quarterfinals.

Everyone wanted him as far away from them as possible. In the end, it was Alcaraz who got lucky, with Djokovic drawn in the top half and given a projected quarterfinal against Jack Draper. His semifinal path sets him up to face Sinner, who beat him during the same stage at Roland Garros a few weeks ago, as well as at last year’s Australian Open. Alcaraz has lost his last two matches against Djokovic and four of his previous six, but the two victories brought him Wimbledon titles.

For Djokovic, looking for a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam, the sharp end of any draw looks tough when seeded No. 6. But at Wimbledon, where he is looking for an eighth title, and where he last year reached the final last year a few weeks out from knee surgery, he knows he holds a major fear factor over the rest of the draw.

If he gets to the quarters, even as he approaches 40 and even with Sinner and Alcaraz in his way, he will fancy his chances of Grand Slam title No. 25.

A tale of two defending champions – and one favorite?

Another good day for Alcaraz. He’s had a lot of them lately.

The defending champion and world No. 2 should have plenty more good days in the coming week. There are some dangerous lower seeds in the men’s draw, who are decent grass-court players: Jakub Menšík or Ugo Humbert. Alcaraz ended up with Stefanos Tsitsipas, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Andrey Rublev in his quarter.

That could have meant tough times in 2021 or 2022. In 2025, not so much. Auger-Aliassime and Tsitsipas are in the mid-20s in the rankings, far removed from the time when they looked like they might threaten to be big forces. Rublev rarely shows up in a Grand Slam against a player of Alcaraz’s caliber.

Alcaraz will start off with Italian showman Fabio Fognini on Monday on Centre Court. Fognini is at the tail end of his career, and then Alcaraz will play the winner of Oliver Tarvet and Leandro Riedl, both of them qualifiers.

Defending women’s champion Barbora Krejčíková comes in at the other end of the spectrum, seeded No. 17. She withdrew from the Eastbourne warmup event with a thigh injury and faces a matchup with a dangerous newcomer in Alexandra Eala, a lefty from the Philippines who beat Iga Świątek in Miami and has been winning matches on grass this month.

As for the women’s favorite, Sabalenka could have some early trouble in the shape of Vondroušová, the 2023 Wimbledon champion who has recovered from a shoulder injury to find her form and who beat Sabalenka in Berlin a week or so ago. Emma Raducanu, who knows her way around a grass court and would relish a Centre Court matchup in the third round, is there too.

Good old battle of Britain. Bring the Pimm’s!

The power of the floaters – and one who has ascended to a higher plane

In a tennis world of homogenised surfaces and playing styles, there’s something refreshing about the fact that there are still dangerous grass-court floaters. Over 20 years ago, when the Wimbledon courts were quicker, pretty much anyone with a big serve could be considered a factor in the draw.

Nowadays, dangerous floaters are much more of a rarity, but there were some standout names across the two draws that everyone wanted to avoid – and one in particular who has ascended from floater to seed on the back of his recent form.

Alexander Bublik, who bamboozled Draper out of the French Open before beating Sinner en route to the Halle title in Germany, is slated to face Draper again in the third round. Bublik’s devastating touch game and cannon of a serve become most dangerous on grass, and the Brit will hope for some misfires.

In the women’s draw, Tatjana Maria was the player all the favorites wanted to avoid: unseeded and fresh from winning the HSBC Championships at the Queen’s Club a couple of weeks ago, where she bewitched her opponents and the spectators with her slice-heavy, throwback game. Maria’s run to the title there included wins against Leylah Fernandez, Karolina Muchová, Elena Rybakina, Madison Keys and Amanda Anisimova, all seeded players at Wimbledon and two of them Grand Slam champions.

The seeds all managed to avoid a first round against Maria, but she has a possible second round against the No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula. It’s the kind of matchup that Pegula, a line-and-length baseliner really wouldn’t relish.

How grass slants matchups across the draw

Yes, the Wimbledon grass isn’t what it used to be, just as the red clay at Roland Garros is faster than it was before the era of surface homogenization.

But it can still tilt matchups in dangerous ways, which go beyond the floater issue.

In terms of first-round matchups, Taylor Fritz probably did not want to see Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard of France below his name. Mpetshi Perricard can serve the ball 150 miles per hour. He caused all kinds of trouble at Wimbledon last year and rumbled into the round of 16, where Lorenzo Musetti finally solved him.

Reilly Opelka, who is nearly 7 feet tall, can have the same effect on a match, though the grass has given him some trouble in the past because of the low bounce. But he’s not around a major seed until he potentially faces Musetti in the third round, which feels far away.

Jessica Pegula isn’t the type to look past her first round, but if she did, she’d see the potential for a match with Maria. She isn’t the only one right to be looking askance. Hugo Gaston could cause Menšík more problems than usual. Dayana Yastremska, who can take the felt off the ball, is a tougher matchup for Coco Gauff than she might be elsewhere: just look at their three-setter in Madrid earlier this year, which is faster than typical clay conditions.

No. 10 seed Ben Shelton has the serve to solve the grass, but less so the movement – qualifier Alex Bolt of Australia is not to be sniffed at on the surface. The same goes for Tommy Paul, who needs to find his health after abdominal and leg injuries on the clay. He should manage wild card Johannus Monday of Britain – if he can walk and do a sit-up.

Frances Tiafoe loves Wimbledon and the grass. He played one match at Queen’s – and lost it. Elmer Møller of Denmark and his strong backhand await, while Emma Navarro might fear the returning Petra Kvitová, a two-time Wimbledon champion, more than she might at other tour stops.