Todd Myers: Snake River dam opponents said Chinook would be ‘nearly extinct’ this year. They were badly wrong.

The spring chinook run on the Snake River has just concluded, and this year was supposed to be consequential for the struggling fish. Four years ago, environmental activists wrote in these pages that unless the four lower Snake River dams were removed, the population of wild salmon would steadily decline until wild salmon runs were “nearly extinct” in 2025.

Four years later, how did spring chinook do? Well, total salmon returns were actually 2% above the 10-year average. Additionally, spring chinook runs in 2025 were 52% higher than in 2021 when the dire prediction was made. Far from nearing extinction, spring chinook runs have increased since 2021. Early indications are that next year will be even better.

Does this mean we are off the hook and that salmon on the Snake are doing fine? Certainly not. There is still a long way to go before Snake River spring chinook join the fall chinook run and approach recovery.

Of course, this is true with salmon runs in many locations across the Pacific Northwest. It took decades to get salmon runs to the low levels they face and it will take a long time to recover them in the Snake, Columbia, Puget Sound, the Pacific Coast and elsewhere.

The returns this year, however, should put the final nail in the coffin of the credibility of those who want to destroy the four lower Snake River dams. For 30 years, dam opponents have warned of Snake River chinook’s imminent extinction. They have been wrong every time. That doesn’t stop them from claiming that doom is, once again, just around the corner. Some have declared 2028 as the new date when extinction is certain.

Others quibble, saying that we need to wait until counts of wild and hatchery salmon are completed to know the true status of the wild spring run. Based on the returns, that is extremely unlikely. There is a ratio between hatchery and wild returns that is generally within a certain range and even if the percentage of wild returns are particularly low, they are still nowhere near extinction. This is one reason that, even before the final count of wild salmon, Nez Perce tribal biologists say spring chinook won’t be functionally extinct this year.

The stakes in the debate about the future of the lower Snake River dams, the energy they produce, the transportation they provide, and the future of salmon runs are simply too high to continuously reward those who make false and frivolous claims. Groups like American Rivers and Washington Conservation Action should pay a reputational price for their

consistent dishonesty. After being wrong so many times, when they return to their doomsday scenario for Snake River chinook, the public, politicians, members of the media and salmon activists should simply dismiss them. It is the reputation they have earned.

Even dam opponents admit that destroying the dams and replacing the services they provide will cost tens of billions of dollars. What’s more, the fixation of some on the dams distracts from the hard work it will take to recover salmon on the Snake and elsewhere. Improving salmon runs will take many actions, including reducing the population of sea lions at the mouth of the Columbia, improving spawning habitat, reducing runoff that carries pollutants and warm water and many other efforts that will, bit by bit, increase salmon populations.

We are making progress in recovering Snake River chinook. It is slow. More work must be done. To get there we need to give more tools to those who are working to recover salmon and less attention to those whose unscientific hyperbole is more about politics than the environment.

Todd Myers is the vice president for Research at Washington Policy Center and is based in Cle Elum, Washington.