Will your Thanksgiving be rainy and cold? An early look at the holiday forecast.
A storm system will cross the United States during Thanksgiving week, probably clearing most of the Lower 48 before Turkey Day itself. But it will be followed by chilly conditions that overtake much of the eastern half of the country for Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday and into the weekend.
The country-crossing low-pressure area will bring a rain and thunderstorm threat to the southern and central Plains by Monday, then to the Midwest and Deep South for Tuesday. In southern states, rain will cause at least localized flooding, and some severe thunderstorms are possible.
By Wednesday, most of the precipitation associated with the storm system will be focused on the East Coast. A new low-pressure area will also be pushing into the Pacific Northwest in the immediate lead-up to Thanksgiving.
On Thanksgiving Day, the Pacific Northwest and portions of New England are likely to face the least favorable weather. The former will see low elevation rain and mountain snow while the latter sees zones of light snow and gusty winds.
Friendly and unfriendly weather
Getting to and from holiday gatherings will be aided by much of the Lower 48 being dry. From the Desert Southwest, through the southern states, to the Midwest and East Coast, weather worries will be relatively few.
The trickiest conditions for Thanksgiving Day will likely affect portions of the Great Lakes, New England and the Pacific Northwest. A couple showers or storms may also impact Florida and coastal areas of the South as a cold front finishes passing through those regions.
Rain could be moderate to heavy during parts of the day in Washington state and Oregon, including around Seattle and Portland. An inch or two might be a reasonable expectation for now in coastal zones through the lower-elevation Cascades. Since it’s still several days out, some shifts are possible.
The northern Cascades in Washington and portions of the northern Rockies will likely see periods of snow, some of which could be heavy. A foot or more is possible in the highest peaks.
In the East, some snowflakes will also fly in the wraparound from the storm that crossed the country during the week, which will spin near southern Hudson Bay on Thanksgiving.
Snow is most likely in the Ontario and Quebec provinces of southeast Canada, where several inches could be widespread, but some of that activity will also spill south of the border, especially in higher elevations of northern New England and east of the Great Lakes. Snow should generally be light south of the border, but some of the favored lake effect belts – especially near Lake Ontario – could see up to several inches.
South of the snow potential, winds could gust up to 20 mph or so around New York City for the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade. For now, it seems gusts should stay below limits to ground the big balloons that are a feature of the event, but winds will require further monitoring in closing.
A zone of light precipitation – including the chance of snow – may also develop by later in the day across the central or northern Plains as the Pacific Northwest storm begins to spill through and east of the Rockies.
Cold turkey in the East and North
Thanksgiving’s chilliest conditions should focus east of the Mississippi River, extending northwest to the northern Plains of the United States and prairies of south-central Canada.
The north-central states will likely awake to temperatures ranging from the single digits to teens and 20s.
From Montana and the Dakotas east to Minnesota, Iowa and portions of the Great Lakes, highs may not get above freezing. Mid-30s could be all Chicago can muster, while Minneapolis may only reach the 20s and north-central North Dakota will shiver in the teens.
A zone stretching from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley should see temperatures about 10 or 15 degrees below normal for the date.
Near and east of the Appalachians, readings may be more temperate since the cold front only passes those areas Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Portions of New England and Florida could end up with somewhat above-average temperatures for the afternoon.
Highs on the East Coast will range from the 30s and 40s north, to the 50s and 60s in the Mid-Atlantic, and then 70s to 80s in the Southeast to Florida.
From the Deep South westward to Texas, daily maximums will mostly be in the 50s and 60s, which is a handful of degrees below normal.
Much of the western United States will see warmer than typical values – perhaps as much as 10 degrees above normal in parts of central and Northern California, Oregon and Nevada. This equates to 40s and 50s in the Great Basin or 60s and 70s nearer the coast and in the Desert Southwest. It will also be colder in mountainous regions where near-freezing highs are anticipated.
Black Friday and the weekend
More cold air is likely to invade the northern and central portions of the country on Black Friday and into the weekend.
With that fresh push of colder air, a quick-moving storm system may drop a swath of snow from the central or northern Rockies eastward across the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region. It’s difficult to pinpoint the exact location of the heaviest snow since it is a week away, but portions of the Plains to Upper Midwest could see plowable snow from Friday through Sunday.