Hurricane Kiko slowly churning toward Hawaii

Hurricane Kiko is ambling toward Hawaii. The major hurricane remained at a strong Category 3 strength as of Friday morning, with 125 mph winds. The system had rapidly intensified in recent days, becoming a 145 mph Category 4 monster before fluctuating in strength as it continues to track westward.

It’s still too early to pin down specific impacts the storm will have on Hawaii, but Kiko will likely make a close pass to the archipelago toward the middle of next week – albeit in a weakened state. Heavy rains, strong winds and very large waves are anticipated sometime in the Tuesday-into-Wednesday time frame.

There’s also a second area to watch behind Kiko, but it is currently unlikely to develop. The National Hurricane Center projects only a 20% chance of the second tropical wave earning a name.

Kiko is the eleventh named storm of the 2025 eastern Pacific hurricane season. Activity is still running about 18% below average, but Kiko is likely to make up for some of that lost ground by churning through “ACE,” or accumulated cyclone energy. That’s a metric used to estimate how much heat energy a storm extracts from the ocean and converts to strong winds. Meanwhile, hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean has been relatively calm, though there are signs it may pick up soon.

Where is Kiko now?

As of Friday morning Eastern time, Kiko was about 1,300 miles east-southeast of Honolulu, moving due west at 9 mph. Its minimum central air pressure was 955 millibars, or about 6% lower than the atmosphere’s average, which is 1,015 millibars at sea level. That means about 6% of the air is missing from the middle of the storm, which explains the hurricane’s powerful inward suction and strong winds. Maximum winds were estimated at 125 mph.

Kiko is a compact storm. Hurricane-force winds extend outward only 25 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds about 70 miles from the center.

And Kiko may be beginning an eyewall replacement cycle, which will result in a brief weakening of the system as the eyewall, or innermost ring of winds surrounding the eye, withers and disintegrates. Eventually, a new, larger eyewall will form and contract inwards, replacing its predecessor. This will allow Kiko to maintain strength or even subtly strengthen once again.

Possible paths for Kiko

Kiko is currently being steered westward, suppressed southward by a large area of high pressure over the central subtropical Pacific. That high is acting as a force field of sorts, preventing Kiko from recurving northward.

In the next day or two, an upper-level low – or a pocket of high-altitude cold air, low pressure and spin – will begin to approach the high from the west. That will erode the western periphery of the high, making it easier for Kiko to slowly begin gaining some latitude northward. The low will also enact a bit of a tug on Kiko, pulling the system northwest.

Therefore, Hawaii could be in its crosshairs.

The good news? Kiko will weaken long before potentially affecting Hawaii. The system should maintain strength or even acutely intensify over the next 24 hours as it passes over water temperatures between 80 and 83 degrees. Mid-level dry air could start to erode the circulation thereafter, and the storm will encounter a bit of shear – disruptive changing winds with height. That will seek to knock the storm off-kilter.

By early next week, Kiko will be moving over water temperatures between 76 and 78 degrees – halting intensification – while mid-level drying and increasingly hostile winds aloft work to tear the system apart.

By Tuesday or Wednesday, when Kiko is passing near Hawaii, it should be only a tropical storm with winds of 40 or 50 mph.

One thing worth noting however – Kiko is likely to become an annular, or ring-shaped tropical cyclone. That means it won’t have any real spiral rain bands, but rather one solid slug of rain wrapping around a large, symmetric eye. Annular cyclones tend to weaken a bit more slowly, which could help Kiko live a bit longer than some models are simulating.

Still, the most reasonable scenario calls for Hawaii to experience squally weather toward the middle of next week, with sporadic downpours, gusty winds, rough surf and perhaps flooding rains.