As Israel’s isolation mounts at U.N., full toll remains limited

A cascade of countries offering recognition to a Palestinian state, mounting accusations of genocide, high-level rebukes over humanitarian conditions in Gaza and growing trade threats have left Israel increasingly isolated as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to address the United Nations General Assembly in New York this week.

Israel’s traditional friendships are strained, Israeli firms are facing boycotts, and proposals to exclude Israel from cultural events and sports are attracting support.

But none of these moves appear to have made so much as a dent in the policies of Israel’s far-right government. Despite fierce objections, Israeli forces are pushing into Gaza City. And earlier this month, Israel targeted Hamas leadership in the capital of a close U.S. ally, Qatar.

Diplomatic pressure won’t lead to changes in policy unless it comes with “significant, serious costs or consequences on Israel,” said Aaron David Miller, a Middle East expert and former U.S. negotiator who advised both Republican and Democratic administrations.

“All of this recognition - it’s a reaction to the horrors on the humanitarian side. It’s frustration and anger at the exponential rise of Palestinian civilian deaths. But it is not affecting the trajectory and the tactics or strategies of Israel,” he said.

Deeper isolation would mean major cuts to trade, the barring of Israeli scientists from partnering with European countries on research, restricting travel, banning Israeli athletes from the Olympics. None of this has happened, but European leaders are increasingly willing to argue that a tougher stance is needed, and Israel’s leadership appears to be bracing for the long haul.

While Britain suspended talks on a new trade deal with Israel in May over concerns about the war in Gaza and the European Union pledged to review trade policies, existing arrangements largely continue to stand. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called earlier this month for a suspension in E.U. free trade with Israel - but it remains unclear if the bloc could unify around such a policy.

Israel’s Defense Ministry continues to report record arms exports - even as weapons flow into Israel at high volume. Defense exports totaled $14.8 billion in 2024, of which more than half was to European countries, according to Defense Ministry data. Only a handful of countries have stopped or limited arms sales to Israel. Germany blocked weapons sales that could be used in Gaza but continues to trade other systems. Spain canceled individual weapons orders last week.

Britain, France and Canada recognized a Palestinian state at the U.N. this week. More than three-quarters of U.N. members now recognize a Palestinian state, and more than half of European Union members do.

The move doesn’t elevate the Palestinian seat beyond the nonmember observer status it has held since 2012. That would require a vote from the U.N. Security Council, where the United States has the power to veto the effort.

But however symbolic the recognition may be, given the situation on the ground, “the Israelis are more nervous than they let on,” Miller said.

Netanyahu has acknowledged Israel’s isolation, but he describes it as an unavoidable consequence of his efforts to keep Israel safe. Speaking this month at a conference, he called on Israelis to becomes more self-sufficient and develop a kind of “super Sparta” society - a severe image to conjure, of an ancient Greek city-state entrenched in the popular imagination as autarkic, hyper-disciplined and ultra-militarist.

“We have no choice, at least for the coming years when we’ll be required to deal with these isolation attempts,” he said. Netanyahu has said the way Israeli forces are fighting the war in Gaza is necessary to eliminate the threat posed by Hamas and return security to the Israeli people.

European officials argue Israel’s war in Gaza is making Israel and the rest of the world less secure.

“What we keep telling the Israeli authorities is: This is not in the interest of the Israeli society, neither of all the region,” an official in the French presidential office said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive discussions. “What we see today on the ground is a continued escalation that we believe will bring only permanent war to the region, to Israel, to the Palestinians.”

Israel’s war in Gaza - which began in response to the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, that left about 1,200 people in Israel dead - has become the deadliest and most destructive of the country’s history. More than 65,000 people have been killed in Gaza, including 18,500 children, according to data from the Gaza Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants. Entire neighborhoods have been leveled by airstrikes, critical infrastructure has been destroyed, and the famine that was confirmed in Gaza City in August is projected to spread.

Global outrage over the dire humanitarian conditions in Gaza, including famine, has swelled in Europe and elsewhere as demonstrators demand that their political leaders do more to stop the crisis. In Italy this week, thousands of workers and students participated in a nationwide strike over Gaza that closed ports and some public transit hubs. That domestic pressure has played a key role in pushing European leaders to find a way to act.

The United States’ veto power at the U.N. Security Council has shielded Israel from the body’s power to dole out consequences. Six times the body has voted to force a ceasefire in Gaza and six times, the U.S. has vetoed the effort.

A move by the E.U. to suspend free trade with Israel and impose sanctions on two Israeli cabinet members and a number of West Bank settlers, all of which are under consideration, could apply real pressure, analysts said. Kaja Kallas, the E.U.’s foreign policy chief, called on member states to approve the measure and “pressure the Israeli government to change course.”

The sanctions would freeze the assets of the Israeli ministers and ban their travel in the E.U. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said sanctions would not work. “We will not be bent through threats while Israel’s security is at stake,” Saar said.

It’s unclear if the measure will pass. The last time the E.U. attempted to implement a concrete step to suspend research grants to Israeli organizations, the body failed to get the majority needed to pass the measure.

Momentum is also building in the cultural space. Spain, Ireland and the Netherlands have all threatened to boycott Eurovision 2026 - the world’s largest music competition, wildly popular in Europe and beyond - if Israel participates. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called for Israel to be excluded from all international sports, similar to how Russia was banned from the Olympics following its invasion of Ukraine. In the U.S., more than 4,000 film workers, including A-list stars, signed a pledge this month to boycott certain Israeli film institutions.

Many Israelis still “underestimate” the degree to which the world is outraged by the war in Gaza, said Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior U.S. intelligence official who is director at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East program.

Many Israelis believe “that Israel’s defense and military capabilities, and some of its cyber capabilities, are so good that no matter what, states will quietly still want to engage and buy them,” he said.

But Panikoff said that could change, as countries contend with growing public anger. While Israel is economically vulnerable after 23 months of war, measures such as sanctions even once imposed can take a long time to have an impact, he said.

“I don’t think it’s the short term that’s going to be a problem for Israel. I think it’s the long-term trajectory,” he said.