Anticipating an Arizona-Michigan epic and another April victory for UConn | NCAA Final Four

Depending on the oddsmaker of choice, either Arizona or Michigan is favored to win the NCAA Tournament now that the Final Four matchups are set. A clash of the No. 1 seeds would make for a scintillating championship, except they are scheduled to meet in the semifinals Saturday evening.

Which got us thinking: Given their stellar resumes and near-total tournament dominance, is Arizona-Michigan the best semifinal matchup of the decade? Of the century?

The teams have a combined record of 71-5 and won all eight of their tournament games by an average of 21.5 points.

Michigan is the first team in tournament history to win four games by double digits and score at least 90 points in each, according to the Associated Press.

Arizona beat the SEC and Big Ten tournament champions, Arkansas and Purdue, respectively, by a combined 36 points in the West regional.

Neither school is a true basketball blue blood (e.g., Kentucky, Kansas, North Carolina), but both own national titles and multiple Final Four appearances. They are, unquestionably, two of the sport’s big brands.

Arizona spent 10 weeks as the No. 1 team in the AP poll; Michigan spent eight as No. 2 (and one as No. 1).

Their Pomeroy efficiency ratings, which measure points per possession (scored and allowed) adjusted for opponents, are among the highest in the modern era.

The Wolverines shoot 50.5 percent from the field. The Wildcats shoot 50.2 percent.

The Wolverines shoot 36 percent from 3-point range. The Wildcats? Also 36 percent.

All the ingredients for a classic exist. Every box is checked. It’s a blockbuster.

But there have been other blockbuster matchups in semifinals past. How does Arizona-Michigan compare?

We scoured decades of brackets to find the closest comparison using the following criteria:

To be considered, both participants had to be No. 1 seeds, which reflects season-long dominance, and marquee brands – if not true blue bloods then at least light-blue bloods.

Two came immediately to mind:

• Villanova vs. Kansas in 2018. The Wildcats were 34-4 and two years removed from a national championship, but the Jayhawks, while a No. 1 seed, had seven losses on their ledger when the teams collided in San Antonio. The showdown turned into a dud, with Villanova rolling to a 16-point win.

• Wisconsin vs. Kentucky in 2015. The Badgers stepped onto the grand stage with a 35-3 record to face what many considered an all-time team: Big Blue was 38-0 with a lineup that included Devin Booker and Karl-Anthony Towns. Wisconsin outscored the Wildcats 11-4 in the final minutes to secure a 71-64 victory.

Those were heavyweight matchups, to be sure. But the game we identified as the standard against which all subsequent semifinal duels are measured — for hype, if not actual drama – took place almost two decades ago:

• Kansas vs. North Carolina in 2008. Their combined record, 71-5, exactly matches the Arizona-Michigan mark. The Tar Heels were No. 1 in the AP poll from the start of the season into late January; the Jayhawks spent all but one week in the top five. Bill Self and Roy Williams. Ten future draft picks on the rosters.

It was the blockbuster of semifinal blockbusters … until tipoff.

Kansas controlled the game throughout and won by 18 points in San Antonio, then beat Memphis two days later to win the championship.

Arizona and Michigan don’t have the tradition to match Kansas and North Carolina. But their seeds, their dominance and their identical combined records suggest the duel Saturday in Indianapolis belongs on the same tier of anticipation.

Let’s just hope it’s closer – much, much closer – than 18 points.

The picks

First round: 1-7

Second round: 2-5

Sweet 16: 3-2

Elite Eight: 3-1

Total: 9-15

All picks against the spread

Lines courtesy of vegasinsider.com

(All times Pacific)

No. 2 UConn (+2.5) over No. 3 Illinois

Tipoff: Saturday at 3:09 p.m. on TBS/truTV

Over/Under: 139.5

Comment: We have seen this game before: The Huskies handled Illinois with ease in late November in Madison Square Garden, leading by 17 points late before the Illini made the final margin a tad more respectable (13). Back then, freshman point guard Keaton Wagler was adjusting to the college game, and Illinois hadn’t morphed into the offensive machine we see today. At the same time, UConn big man Tarris Reed played just 15 minutes and was 0-of-3 from the field – a far cry from the dominant force who ripped Duke for 26 points in the Elite Eight. If the Huskies shoot reasonably well from the perimeter, they should have the game in control down the stretch. If they don’t, look for a last-possession-wins situation.

No. 1 Arizona (+1.5) over No. 1 Michigan

Tipoff: Saturday at 5:49 p.m. on TBS/truTV

Over/Under: 157.5

Comment: Notably, Arizona opened as 1.5-point favorites, but the line immediately swung to the Wolverines. We suspect it will remain in Michigan’s favor until tipoff unless injury news surfaces. Regardless of the lean, it reflects what should be a taut, riveting matchup of loaded teams with similar approaches: Dominate the paint on both ends of the court with complementary 3-point shooting. The efficiency ratings at KenPom.com (points per possession) reflect the caliber of combatants: Michigan is No. 1 overall, No. 1 defensively and No. 5 offensively. Arizona is No. 2, No. 2 and No. 4, respectively. (To identify the difference, a microscope is required.) The Wolverines will have the best player, forward Yaxel Lendeborg, but the Wildcats arguably possess more playmakers capable of impacting the game down the stretch. If both teams operate at peak performance, the Wolverines will win by eight or 10 points — their ceiling is in the clouds. But is optimum performance possible against an opponent with so many strengths and zero weaknesses? Not in our view. This should go to the wire and has game-for-the-ages potential.

Straight-up winners: UConn and Arizona

Five-star special: UConn. Coach Dan Hurley is undefeated against the point spread – we’re talking 10-0, folks – in the Sweet 16, Elite Eight and Final Four during his career with the Huskies. The Hotline plans to ride that train, folks.