What is the Pentagon Pizza theory and is it accurate?

As President Donald Trump has given Iran an “ultimatum,” threatening to dismantle the country if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, some people are checking pizza delivery patterns in the Washington, D.C. area.

But why?

Here’s what to know about the Pentagon Pizza theory, ​which suggests there is a surge in pizza deliveries to the Pentagon when major geopolitical events begin.

What is the Pentagon Pizza theory?

The Pentagon Pizza Index — one of multiple accounts ⁠that tracks pizza deliveries — says the theory that there is an increase in pizza orders to the Pentagon for ‌major events is “supported by historical anecdotes and modern traffic ​data.”

“Spikes frequently coincide with elevated watch or major news,” the website says. “Like any single indicator, it’s best read in context with other signals.”

The website uses “popular times” data on Google Maps to track how busy six pizzerias near the Pentagon are.

Similarly, ⁠the X account @PenPizzaReport frequently updates showing which pizzerias are showing ‌elevated traffic levels.

On Monday, for instance, ‌the Pentagon Pizza Report account showed several pizzerias were “reporting above average traffic.”

The pizza indicators will be closely watched tonight, April 7, as Trump ⁠has issued a deadline of sorts for 8 p.m., vowing to kill off a “whole civilization” if Iran doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz.

Is the Pentagon Pizza ‌theory real?

Alex Selby-Boothroyd, head of data ‌journalism at The Economist, said last year the theory “has been a surprisingly reliable predicator of seismic global events” since the 1980s.

The theory originated after Frank Meeks, who owned ⁠dozens of Dominoes franchises around DC, observed a sharp increase in ​late-night orders to the Pentagon ⁠and White ​House when Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, he told the Los Angeles Times.

But there is some skepticism, with Ryan Fedasiuk, a researcher in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, calling the theory unreliable.

“There’s any number of ⁠reasons activity could be spiking or not spiking at a local pizza shop in the Washington, DC area — even those that are around US intelligence and military facilities,” he told The ⁠Washingtonian. “But it is one of many indicators you could use to determine that the government is up to more stuff on this particular Tuesday night.”

Even Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is aware of the theory, joking earlier this year ⁠that he has considered ordering pizzas “just ‌to throw everybody off.”

“Some Friday night when you see a ​bunch of ‌Dominos orders, it might just be me on an app, throwing the whole ​system off so we keep everybody off balance. We look at every indicator,” he said.