It’s been an unusually harsh winter. When will that end?
Have your lips been chapped and your skin felt extra dry this season? You’re not imagining things. In places like the East and Midwest, it hasn’t just been cold; humidity levels have been unusually low. Fueled by low temperatures, that lack of moisture means there hasn’t been much for your skin to absorb, drying it out.
Where winter has had a tight grip, this one has been rather harsh for more reasons than one, compared with the climate of the past several winters.
But across the United States overall, this winter has been a tale of two halves for the United States.
One half has been colder than average. The other, much warmer than average. Of the contiguous states, 21 of them, as well as D.C., have experienced colder-than-average conditions, 15 warmer than average. Meanwhile, 12 have been near average.
The split screen is also true for the snow. About half of people living in the United States have experienced above-average snowfall so far this season – the highest since 2013. As a snow drought deepened in the West, blockbuster storms have hit the Plains, Midwest and East.
Jon Meyer, the assistant state climatologist in Utah, said that Utah is “officially in uncharted territory” in terms of the low snowpack.
While there’s some relief headed for the West, another blast of dangerously cold Arctic air is headed for the East this weekend.
A significant proportion of people living in the eastern half of the U.S. have experienced below-average temperatures since the start of December – around 205 million in total.
Largely stemming from a polar vortex that has been disturbed and sitting unusually far south, low temperature records dating to the 1800s have been challenged or broken time and time again. This pattern has been stuck in place with little change since around Thanksgiving.
Does this relentless cold mean the overall trend of global warming is a thing of the past? No.
Ask someone living in Denver or Salt Lake City for their opinion on this winter’s weather, and you’ll get a very different answer than somebody in the East.
Compared to average, the five warmest states have been Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, Idaho and Colorado – all at least 6 degrees above average since the start of December.
Higher temperatures in Utah are also driving up evaporation rates, which is very unusual for the time of year, as the landscape is usually frozen and snow-covered, said Meyer. Beyond just a lack of precipitation, this strange factor is exacerbating water stress concerns.
On a global scale, the U.S. has been an anomaly.
Across the planet, about 75% of land and ocean has experienced above-average temperatures this winter, excluding a swath from Alaska to Canada and the northern contiguous states where the cold has been vicious.
In the Arctic, winter temperatures have been well above average. A spot near the western coast of Greenland has been a remarkable 26 degrees warmer than average.
Winter is not typically a season when people think about humidity, but the lack of moisture in the air this time of year can be very noticeable – such as by drying out your skin and lips.
Because cold air holds less water vapor than warm air, humidity is lower during winter, according to direct moisture measurements such as dew point.
This winter, the air has been extra dry in the Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic – which makes sense, because that’s where it has been coldest compared to average.
“I’ve spent so much money on chapstick,” wrote one user on X. Another wondered if the low humidity was contributing to more static shocks.
It can. Water conducts electricity. When the air is dry, there aren’t enough water molecules to disperse static, so charge builds up on your skin and jumps to whatever you touch – which is when you get zapped.
Places where humidity levels have been particularly low compared with normal include D.C., Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Virginia.
Humidity has been trending upward across much of the U.S., making this winter’s conditions noteworthy.
It’s been a weird season as far as snow goes.
Flurries have been spotted as far south as Cape Coral, Florida. There’s been much more snow in Charlotte than there’s been in Salt Lake City.
Nearly 50% of the population has experienced above-average snowfall so far this season, the highest number in 13 years. Swaths of the Southeast have had five times their average seasonal snowfall to date.
States including New York, the Carolinas, Michigan and Indiana have had their snowiest season in years.
But the snowiest areas have been confined to the East. Several other states, including Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Nevada and Oregon have seen very steep snow shortfalls.
“Roughly one-third of snow observing stations across Utah’s mountains are at record low snow water content while the remainder of the other stations are not far behind,” added Meyer.
A few storms are lining up to hit the West in mid-to-late February, though these massive snow holes will be challenging to climb out of.
“Every precipitating event counts at this point in the year,” Meyer said.
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When will it warm up?
It’s about to get really cold in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic this weekend – Sunday could be the most frigid day of winter so far for millions of people, with widespread, dangerous wind chills of minus-10 to minus-30.
That’s because the incoming air mass will arrive all the way from the Russian Arctic, passing the North Pole en route to the U.S. This is known as cross-polar flow.
But after that, there are some warmer changes on the horizon.
Those changes will first be felt in the Plains and Midwest early next week, as much milder air from the Pacific Ocean slides down the Rocky Mountains and flows eastward.
After deep, long-lasting freezes, temperatures in Minneapolis and Chicago could rise past 40 degrees. Farther south, widespread temperatures in the 60s, 70s and 80s will reach areas hit by January’s monster winter storm, including St. Louis, Oklahoma City, Dallas and Little Rock.
And by Tuesday or Wednesday, some of that milder air will finally reach the East Coast, with several rounds of above-average temperatures possible over the next two weeks – ushering a February thaw.
However, there’s an important caveat. That milder pattern also looks stormy.
Don’t expect blue skies, sunshine and T-shirt weather to return any time soon.