Winter storm brings snow from Rockies to Great Lakes, up to 18 inches

A strengthening winter storm will track from the Intermountain West into the Upper Great Lakes through early Thursday, bringing heavy snow, strong winds and areas of freezing rain.

Energy from a broader system on the West Coast – currently bringing heavy rain and significant mountain snow to California and the Interior Northwest – ejects into the Northern Plains Tuesday, producing blizzard conditions in eastern Montana before strengthening over the Dakotas, according to the Weather Prediction Center winter weather forecast.

The heaviest snowfall is expected from North Dakota into northern Minnesota, where snow rates could exceed 1 inch per hour at times.

Blizzard warnings are in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning, for parts of northeastern Minnesota and eastern Montana.

“Pacific moisture ahead of the longwave upper trough off the West Coast will spill over the Cascades and Sierra Nevada and reach many ranges across the Intermountain West this week that badly need the boost in snowpack,” the Weather Prediction Center wrote. “The bulk of the heavy snow will be observed in mountain ranges such as the Wasatch, Bear River, Tetons, Uinta, Wind River, Mogollon Rim and (Colorado) Rockies who are forecast to receive between 1 and 2 feet of snow (locally up to 3 feet possible).

In addition to heavy snow, a corridor of freezing rain is expected from near Duluth east across northern Wisconsin and into northern Michigan. Ice accumulations of at least one-tenth of an inch are possible, with localized amounts exceeding one-quarter inch in parts of northern Michigan, according to the Weather Prediction Center winter weather forecast.

The low will slowly move through the western Great Lakes by Wednesday before gradually weakening into Thursday.

How much snow is expected?

Forecasters say totals of 10 to 18 inches are possible in portions of northeastern Minnesota, with localized totals over 24 inches possible, along with easterly wind gusts up to 60 mph.

“A powerful and ⁠messy winter system is expected to bring heavy, wet snow, freezing rain, mixed precipitation and strong winds to the Northland Tuesday evening to Thursday morning,” the National Weather Service in Duluth wrote in its area forecast discussion. “Blizzard conditions are expected along the North Shore,” along with winter storm and gale warnings.

In eastern Montana, lighter snowfall amounts are expected, but gusts up to 55 mph could create whiteout conditions. Temperatures are also expected to noticeably starting Tuesday evening, Feb. 18, according to ⁠the National Weather Service in Glasgow.

“A significant change in the weather pattern begins tonight with below normal Arctic temps starting Wednesday and lasting through Friday before a slow rise to near normal early next work week,” the weather service wrote in its area forecast discussion.

As the storm shifts east, snow will extend into northern Wisconsin and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. Moderate to high probabilities support snowfall totals over 6 inches in parts of the Upper Midwest, including areas near Lake Superior, according to the Weather Prediction Center.

What to expect in Northeast and Mid-Atlantic as winter storm moves east

As the system shifts east, some snow and mixed precipitation could reach parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Feb. 19, according to the Climate Prediction Center.

However, the impacts are expected to be lighter and ⁠much more localized than the widespread hazards seen earlier for the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Most accumulations will occur in mountains and higher elevations.

Upstate New York, western Vermont and the northern half of New England ⁠may see a few inches of snow where the strongest dynamic cooling interacts with colder air near the surface. South of this corridor, a light mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain is possible, particularly near the southern shores of Lake Ontario. Blizzard conditions are not expected in these areas, though slippery roads may create “ice jams” and travel difficulties in upstate New York.

“Above freezing temperatures and rainfall may lead to elevated flows and ice jams mid-week, ” the National Weather Service in Buffalo wrote. “An ⁠active pattern returns by Wednesday with chances for rain, snow and potentially a wintry mix at times” with “another significant system late this week with rain and snow Friday.”

Forecasters say the surface low will weaken as it moves through the western Great Lakes and continues northeast, meaning snow and ice totals in the Mid-Atlantic will be significantly lower than those in Minnesota or Montana. Temperatures in these regions are ⁠expected to remain near normal or slightly below normal through Thursday.

Looking ahead into early March

After this storm moves through, long-range forecasts suggest active weather will continue across parts of the United States. The Climate Prediction Center’s week 3–4 outlook (Feb. 28–Mar. 13) shows wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the Midwest and Great Lakes, while the Pacific Northwest is expected to see cooler-than-normal temperatures.

Warmer-than-normal conditions are forecast for the Central and Southern Rockies, the Great Plains extending to the Atlantic Seaboard, and Hawaiʻi. Southwestern ⁠states, the Gulf Coast, and much of the eastern seaboard are expected to be drier than average.

Forecasters say this pattern reflects lingering La Niña influences in the Pacific and the gradual transition toward spring. Snowfall is still possible in the Midwest and Great Lakes if cold fronts push south into areas with active precipitation, but widespread winter hazards are less likely than the massive systems we’ve seen this winter.