Commentary: What the NET says about the post-realignment hierarchy on the West Coast
As the end of the college basketball regular season fast approaches, so, too, does the end of the existing conference structure across the western third of the country. The rebuilt Pac-12 comes online next fall, as does the revised Mountain West and the tweaked West Coast Conference.
Which future league has the brightest forecast based on current performance?
For full context, we dipped into the past, as well.
The Hotline used the most practical measure of conference strength, NET rankings, to examine the hierarchy for the following six conferences: the former Pac-12, the current WCC and Mountain West and the new Pac-12, Mountain West and WCC.
The data is revealing.
All six past, present and future leagues have their laggards, of course, but some possess more than others.
(Listed in order of average NET ranking).
Former Pac-12
Average NET: 87.2
Top 50 teams: Arizona (2), UCLA (45) and USC (46)
No. 200 or worse: Oregon State (212)
Comment: It wasn’t a very good basketball conference when it existed, and it wouldn’t be now. Sure, Oregon State tarnishes every league it touches in this exercise, but the list of legacy underachievers includes Oregon (102) and Utah (131).
New Pac-12
Average NET: 115.1
Top 50 teams: Gonzaga (6) and Utah State (13)
200 or worse: Oregon State (212) and Texas State (266)
Comment: We have no idea if the rebuilt conference considered adding Texas State as a football-only member and looked elsewhere for the ninth basketball school – the Bobcats might not have agreed to those terms, after all – but remove them from the calculation and the new Pac-12’s average NET drops to 96.3.
Current Mountain West
Average NET: 117.8
Top 50 teams: Utah State (13) and New Mexico (41)
200 or worse: San Jose State (248) and Air Force (332)
Comment: The five departing schools didn’t just leave for more money. They sought competitive disassociation from the bottom of the Mountain West in both football and basketball because strength-of-schedule plays a vital role in College Football Playoff and NCAA Tournament access.
New Mountain West
Average NET: 160.6
Top 50 teams: New Mexico (41)
200 or worse: San Jose State (248), UTEP (277) and Air Force (332)
Comment: Don’t forget, the restructured conference will include Hawaii (94) and UC Davis (177), in addition to UTEP, as basketball-playing members. And Grand Canyon (100) began play this season.
Current WCC
Average NET: 138.2
Top 50 teams: Gonzaga (6) and Saint Mary’s (30)
No. 200 or worse: Oregon State (212), San Diego (217), Portland (229) and Pepperdine (281)
Comment: Santa Clara’s improvement (51) helps, but there’s only so much ground to gain when one-third of the membership is below 200. The mess in Malibu is something to behold.
New WCC
Average NET: 163.8
Top 50 teams: Saint Mary’s (30)
200 or worse: San Diego (217), Portland (229), Denver (244) and Pepperdine (281)
Comment: We have included UC San Diego, a quality addition that joins the WCC in 2027-28. The Toreros, who reached the NCAAs last season as the Big West champion, are No. 101 in the NET.
The demise of the Pac-12 had major implications for the sport across the region, creating a secondary realignment wave that touched the Mountain West, WCC, Big West, Big Sky and even the WAC.
Nobody will emerge stronger, but the deterioration within any single conference could be mitigated if just a handful of schools improve their on-court product. (The NET rankings rely on the multiplier effect: the higher your floor, the higher your ceiling).
That’s a major challenge, of course, because financial pressures are rising faster than revenues in many cases and the transfer portal allows for an unprecedented upflow of talent.
The new landscape won’t gain full clarity for several seasons, but there’s always room for sneak peeks. We’ll revisit the situation when the regular season comes to a close.