‘A real sign of turbulence’: Gas prices jumping after Iran conflict

The Iran conflict has driven gas prices up, including a 20 cents-per-gallon spike at a downtown Spokane gas station.

The Idaho and national averages jumped over 10 cents from Monday to Tuesday, reflective of the gas price spike after Russia invaded Ukraine four years ago, according to Matthew Conde, public and government affairs director at AAA Idaho.

“That’s a sign of real turbulence,” he said of the recent overnight jump.

Conde said it’s difficult to predict prices at the pump in the immediate future. Regardless of overseas conflict, prices were bound to increase with an increased spring demand and refineries starting to produce the more expensive summer-blend fuel.

“I think that there’s gonna be some heartburn over the next day or two as the market tries to figure out what’s coming,” Conde said. “What will that translate to at the pumps? It’s really hard to say.”

Oil analyst Tom Kloz__a, an adviser to Gulf Oil, said he expected retail gas prices to go up 5 to 10 cents a day for the foreseeable future, according to CNN.

AAA Idaho says higher crude oil prices could apply upward pressure on gas prices in the coming days and weeks.

Oil tanker traffic has mostly halted through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil shipments on the southern end of Iran, after the U.S. and Israel’s strikes on the middle eastern country started over the weekend. Conde said the inability to move products through the strait may cause ripple effects. It’s unclear how long the strait will be blocked.

“There’s lots of unknowns at the moment,” Conde said. “If this is drawn out, then the market will stay jittery for a while. But if it sort of resolves itself, then ultimately it’ll move more into that spring cycle where you’ll see the demand start to pick up and you’ll see things moving from the demand side more than what we’re seeing on the fear of the supply side.”

The U.S. does not import Iran’s oil, but China and India, two of the most populated countries in the world, do. So, if their product is taken offline, then that demand has to be filled somewhere, Conde said.

“So, even if the Iran situation doesn’t directly affect things, we’re just too interconnected as a world now to ignore something that’s happening,” he said. “If there is shortfall somewhere, then we’re gonna feel the effect at some point.”

As traffic on roadways picks up for spring travel, prices at the pump will likely increase. Conde also said refineries will switch in the next month or so to a summer-blend fuel, which is more expensive to make and, thus, driving up prices.

“The trend was probably always going to be higher prices in the spring, but to see things kind of starting a little earlier, that’s a little bit disconcerting,” Conde said.

At Divine’s gas station in downtown Spokane, regular gas increased from $3.89 over the weekend to $4.09 Tuesday, according to store manager Justin Delreal.

Antonio Cardenas, 40, of Spokane, filled his Ford Focus up with midgrade fuel Tuesday afternoon. He said gas prices are already high, but he worried about them increasing further because of the Middle East conflict.

Cardenas said he typically uses premium gas, but it was so expensive he used the midgrade fuel Tuesday because it was 32 cents cheaper.

“It still hurt my wallet,” he said.

Zaq Munson, a 29-year-old Spokane resident, filled his car up Tuesday at Chevron in downtown Spokane where regular gas was $3.89.

While Munson acknowledged the recent Middle East violence is further increasing gas prices, he said Washington’s gas prices are always higher than most other states because of liberal policies, like the Climate Commitment Act.

“I think global conflict affects oil prices, yeah, but not really when we’re an oil-producing nation and when we get most of our oil from Saudi Arabia,” he said.

He said the spotlight should have been on high gas prices in Washington before the Iran conflict.

“We should have had the spotlight on poor policies driving up our gas prices in the first place and now we have to deal with the fallout effects of worldwide conflict when it’s a simple solution of just cutting down those taxes,” Munson said.

The national gas price average is $3 per gallon, but Washington is $4.37 and Idaho is $2.97, according to AAA Idaho on Monday. The national average is 6 cents more than a week ago and 12 cents more than a month ago, but 10 cents cheaper than a year ago, according to AAA.

Munson said he’s annoyed that he has to spend so much at the pump and would rather go to Coeur d’Alene or Post Falls for a cheaper price.

“Why are we at $4.09? That makes no sense whatsoever,” Munson said.