Safely in the field, Gonzaga, Idaho await first-round assignments | NCAA women

When a college basketball team is a double-digit seed to the NCAA Tournament, projecting where said team lands is like trying to throw darts blindfolded.

Especially in the NCAA women’s version of the Big Dance, where the top 16 seeds are hosts for first- and second-round games. Those top seeds were decided well before conference tournaments.

There’s no such thing as educated projections for the other 52 teams in the field of 68. At best, it’s educated guessing.

Seeding will be revealed Sunday at 5 p.m. on ESPN.

This is where Gonzaga (24-9) and Idaho (29-5) find themselves Sunday morning mere hours before the selection show.

Interestingly, Gonzaga has known where it’s going before and not so long ago. Two years ago, the Zags upset then No. 3-ranked Stanford on its way to a terrific regular season, earning the right to host first- and second-round games.

Gonzaga swept those games, advancing to the Sweet 16. The Zags finished 32-4.

That was a veteran team. The Zags started four graduate players and a senior. This year, with one of its youngest teams ever, the Zags had mixed results through a difficult nonconference schedule, and they knew the only way they would return to the NCAA Tournament was to win the WCC Tournament.

This is the fifth trip in six years to the NCAA Tournament and 10th overall in coach Lisa Fortier’s 12 years.

This season was one of the more competitive seasons in the WCC regular season, but that didn’t move the needle nationally. The Zags are ranked No. 62 in the NET, but nine of their WCC sisters have NET numbers in triple digits. That attracts unwanted attention in many ways.

So where will Gonzaga be sent this week? Bracket forecasts solidified by early Saturday evening.

Earlier in the season, the Zags were penciled in Fort Worth, Texas, and at another time East Lansing, Michigan. But they were bumped out of ESPN’s bracketology Feb. 14 after a 72-63 loss at Loyola Marymount.

When Gonzaga won its semifinal against Santa Clara and LMU was eliminated by Oregon State, the Joe Lunardi of women’s basketball projections, ESPN’s Charlie Creme , gave the Bulldogs a 12th seed and matched them up against 5-seed North Carolina (26-7) at the University of Minnesota.

He tweaked his projections Saturday afternoon, keeping the Zags as a 12 seed in Minneapolis but placing them against 5-seed Ole Miss (23-11).

Creme had LMU as a 15th seed. The Zags’ strength of schedule and NET bumped them three spots higher no doubt. There’s some thought that the Zags could end up as an 11th seed.

Minnesota (22-8), a 4 seed, is forecasted to face 13-seed Idaho in the other first-round game in Minneapolis.

That pod is in the Sacramento Regional with No. 1 seed South Carolina.

Less than a year ago, Gonzaga and Minnesota faced off in Minneapolis in the WBIT quarterfinals, a game won by the Gophers 82-77 in overtime.

Her Hoop Stats also has Gonzaga as a 12 seed and projects the Zags taking on 5-seed Ole Miss in Minneapolis. Host Minnesota, a 4 seed, is pitted against No. 13 Western Illinois.

For most of the week, Her Hoop Stats had Gonzaga as a 12 seed going to Norman, Oklahoma, against 5-seed Michigan State (22-8), with 4-seed Oklahoma taking on 13-seed Colorado State (27-7), which knocked off Gonzaga 70-66 at McCarthey Athletic Center in mid November. The Norman pod is in the Sacramento Regional with UCLA (31-1) as the No. 1.

Autumn Johnson, an analyst for the Big Ten Network, has done a bracket for NCAA.com since 2020. She has Gonzaga as a 12 seed taking on 5-seed Ole Miss at a pod hosted by West Virginia.

Gonzaga was a 9 seed taking on 8-seeded Ole Miss in a first-round game in 2023 at Stanford. The Zags hung around for a quarter before falling 71-48.

Idaho returns to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in a decade. The Vandals withstood a Montana State rally to win the Big Sky Tournament 60-57 Wednesday.

It’s been a spectacular season under second-year coach Arthur Moreira.

The Vandals, with the most wins in school history, have won 18 in a row, the longest streak in history. If we’re being real, though, that will likely end this week.

In NCAA.com’s bracketology, Idaho is cast as a 14 seed taking on 3-seed Michigan (25-6) in Ann Arbor in the Fort Worth Regional with No. 1 seed UConn (34-0).

Idaho is projected to travel to the Lone Star state in Her Hoops Stats’ projections as a 14 seed against No. 3 TCU (29-5) in Fort Worth.

That puts Idaho in the other regional in Sacramento in the bracket with No. 1 seed South Carolina (31-3).

The projections for Gonzaga and Idaho, coupled with $3, might buy a coffee at a convenience store.

Check into the TV broadcast to find out the teams’ true destinations.