Best strategies to help you win your 2026 March Madness pool

There are few events that bring everyone together like the NCAA Tournament does every March. It doesn’t matter if you’re a huge college basketball fan, a sports fan or you haven’t watched a single basketball game this season. Most of us will fill out a bracket for an office pool or with our families. But even though everyone will complete a bracket, and anyone can win a bracket pool, there are still certain practices and tips that maximize your chance of securing bragging rights.

Identifying winners is easier said than done, but a targeted approach drastically improves your odds. First and foremost, understand how the size of your affects strategy. If you’re in a large pool, you’ll want to pick more upsets. In a smaller pool, you’ll want to stick with the favorites.

You should want to win but not tie, which means you have to consider your expected outcomes and also everyone else’s, along with their tendencies and fandoms. If you are in a pool with a bunch of Duke or Michigan fans, maybe choose Arizona or Florida as your winner to give yourself a better chance at being on top by yourself.

Every pool has a unique set of rules, and you need to know them. Some value upsets more than others, which should guide your choices.

Bracket strategy for large pools (50-plus people)

As I alluded to earlier, this strategy is based on variance, and while that doesn’t mean taking three double-digit seeds to make the Final Four, you will need to have some upsets into the Sweet 16 and possibly later. And while all four No. 1 seeds made it to the Final Four last year (which you may think is a reason to bet against this strategy), I would guess a lot of pools had Florida winning. So, how do you differentiate yourself?

By picking Arkansas to make the Sweet 16 as a No. 10 seed and BYU and Ole Miss as No. 6 seeds (three upsets that occurred last year).

The No. 1 seeds appear strong again this year, and the No. 2 seeds aren’t too shabby either. Choosing a top seed to lose early isn’t as detrimental to your expected point total if you have them losing in the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight instead of in the early rounds.

You can also gain an edge by checking public bracket percentages. When debating upsets to pick, look for teams that aren’t getting much love from the public, which will maximize your point total against the average pool participant. You can even compare the public percentages against my tournament projections.

As of now at CBS Sports, participants are picking Duke 23 percent of the time to win it all, followed by Arizona at 19 percent, Michigan at 14 percent and Florida at 7 percent. So if you’re looking to take a No. 1 seed to win it all in a larger pool, it’s probably best to go with Florida and avoid Duke. My projections have Duke at 16 percent, Arizona and Michigan at 14 percent and Florida at 11 percent.

You should compare the public percentages for just about every round in your bracket. For instance, the first-round matchup that catches my eye immediately is Santa Clara over Kentucky. CBS Sports has Santa Clara being picked in just 30 percent of brackets, while my model has them winning 47 percent of the time. If you think my number is aggressive – it probably is – the betting market is sitting at 40 percent for Santa Clara.

With that general advice out of the way, here are some teams my model thinks are worth targeting for bigger pools:

First-round upsets to target in large pools: Santa Clara, Utah State, Iowa, SMU/Miami (Ohio), Texas/NC State, VCU, Miami (Florida), TCU, Hofstra, Northern Iowa, Cal Baptist

Sweet 16 teams to target in large pools: Louisville, Iowa, SMU/Miami (Ohio), Texas/NC State, Texas Tech, Utah State, Tennessee, Illinois, Miami (Florida), Santa Clara

Final Four teams to target in large pools: Iowa State, Purdue, UConn

Championship teams to target in large pools: Florida, Houston, Iowa State, Purdue

Bracket strategy for small pools (fewer than 15 people)

To win small pools, you take the exact opposite approach as you would in larger pools. You don’t want to take a lot of upsets, and you definitely don’t want to take a Cinderella story deep into your bracket. By the time you have settled upon your Elite Eight, you probably want to have the best teams remaining. The fact is, it’s not likely that lower seeds will make deep tournament runs, and it’s even harder to pinpoint which double-digit seed will make that run. If you stick to all No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in your Elite Eight, you’ll probably be at the top of your pool by the end of the second weekend.

First-round upsets to target in small pools: Santa Clara, Utah State, Iowa, VCU

Sweet 16 teams to target in small pools: Louisville, Texas Tech, Illinois

Final Four teams to target in small pools: Iowa State, Purdue

Championship teams to target in small pools: Florida, Houston

Bracket strategy for medium pools (16-49 people)

It’s easy to guess what strategy to use for medium pools because it’s somewhere in the middle of the large and small pool strategies. How much risk you put in your bracket (upsets) probably depends on whether your pool has closer to 50 or 15 people. Be more aggressive if your pool has closer to 40 and conservative if there are around 20.

When navigating medium-sized pools, focus your strategy on finding teams that can push through to the Sweet 16. I like to stay pretty chalk-heavy in the Elite Eight and Final Four. Look for teams that you think have a realistic shot of making the Sweet 16 to pick as your first-round upsets, and you’ll put yourself in a good position to win your pool.

Sweet 16 teams to target: Santa Clara, VCU, SMU/Miami (Ohio), Texas/NC State, Louisville, Texas Tech, SMU/Miami (Ohio), Texas/NC State