MLB’s managerial merry-go-round is about to spin. These 6 jobs could be most volatile | Commentary

Once the managerial merry-go-round starts to spin, the greater intrigue will be not with the firings, but the hirings.

Will Hall of Famer Carlos Beltrán land the New York Mets’ job? Will future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols get his chance, perhaps with the Los Angeles Angels? What about Alex Cora, who was the Philadelphia Phillies’ first choice to replace Rob Thomson, and likely would be their preference again if they move on from Don Mattingly?

Cora is not the only former manager teams might consider. David Ross, Brandon Hyde, Rocco Baldelli and Dave Martinez are among the managers fired in recent years who would welcome another shot. All, however, would come with the label of “retread.” And the trend in the game is in the opposite direction.

Of the nine managers hired before the start of this season, six were first-timers, including the Colorado Rockies’ Warren Schaeffer, who had his interim tag removed. Heads of baseball operations these days seek collaboration, but what some really want is control. A rookie manager is easier to control – er, collaborate with – than a veteran skipper or prominent former player who might hold strong opinions.

So much in the game right now is uncertain. Three teams – the Angels, Athletics and Houston Astros – are seeking new heads of baseball ops. Additional changes are possible, though the Mets, Cincinnati Reds and Baltimore Orioles are among the disappointing clubs indicating they will maintain the status quo.

The expected lockout, which would begin Dec. 1, is another variable. Some teams might want to save money by waiting to hire a manager, knowing that during the work stoppage the new skipper could not communicate with players, only front-office personnel and coaches.

Such thinking, though, might be shortsighted.

A team that delays its decision might lose its preferred candidate to another club. The end of the lockout in March or April, meanwhile, would result in a shortened spring training and the bulk of the 2027 season being played. At that point, the last thing executives would want to worry about is hiring a manager and coaching staff. They already would be scrambling to sign free agents and make trades.

Here’s a look at the situations that potentially are the most volatile:

Seattle Mariners

The sheer disappointment of the Mariners’ season makes Dan Wilson by far the most likely manager to get fired. But the team’s collapse is so profound, it raises concerns that go beyond the manager.

After the Mariners fell one game short of the World Series last season, Fangraphs projected them to be the second-best team in the AL. But this will be their first losing season in a 162-game season since 2019. On their current nine-game trip to Anaheim, Sacramento and Colorado, homes of three of the worst teams in the majors, they’re a dismal 2-4.

The team looked plenty good on paper. The Seattle farm system, according to the Athletic’s Keith Law, is the game’s third strongest. Executives talk about percentile outcomes for a season, 100th being optimal. Where do the 2026 Mariners fall? 10th percentile? Fifth? First?

The vaunted rotation pitched well, if not quite at an elite level. But of the Mariners’ position players, only left fielder Randy Arozarena and right fielder Dominic Canzone met expectations. Which begs the question: How will the Mariners fix this mess?

Seattle has reached the postseason only twice in 11 years under president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, but there is no indication the team’s largely hands-off ownership is interested in making a change. Wilson and some of his coaches, then, figure to be the only casualties. Wilson’s leadership was less than inspiring, sure. But with underperformance this vast, the on-field staff can be faulted for only so much.

Houston Astros

For Joe Espada, the writing – specifically owner Jim Crane’s scribbling – is on the proverbial wall.

The Astros last month fired Dana Brown, the general manager who hired Espada as manager. Espada, too, is in the last year of his contract. Even if Crane wasn’t itchy, which he clearly is, the new GM might want to start fresh with a new manager.

A big showing in October likely would not help Espada, just as it did not help James Click, the general manager who led the Astros to the 2022 World Series title, then departed rather than accept Crane’s offer of a one-year contract extension.

But can we look at this objectively?

Brown effectively stuck with Espada with a lemon, at least by Astros standards. The former GM’s six pitching acquisitions were largely flops. The combined OPS from the team’s outfield is the second lowest in the majors. When asked last month to assess Espada’s performance, Crane replied, “I think Joe is doing what he can with what he’s got.”

Espada, on balance, has indeed managed this team well. The Astros endured lengthy absences from shortstop Jeremy Peña, third baseman Carlos Correa, staff ace Hunter Brown and closer Josh Hader. Their minus-51 run differential entering Wednesday suggested their record should be 70-81 rather than 76-75. And yet, they are tied for the lead in the admittedly feeble AL West.

It all might matter little for Espada. But maybe it will help him get his next job.

New York Mets

You know who would be the perfect choice? Andy Green.

The Mets are 35-36 under Green, including 22-17 since the trade deadline, after going 34-47 under Carlos Mendoza. All of this is happening with the team out of contention and the pressure off. But Green has playing, coaching, managing and front-office experience, and an understanding of how to connect with players. He also would offer needed continuity.

If only he wanted the job.

Green indicated to the Athletic last month that nothing has changed in his desire to return to the front office, saying, “the family consideration is real.” The Mets are operating under the assumption they will need to hire a manager. The question is who.

Three of the team’s last four managers were first-timers who ultimately were fired. An experienced manager, then, seemingly would be the safe call. But Beltrán, who has never managed or coached, already is a special assistant in the organization. His presence alone would command respect.

It’s unclear whether Beltrán would want the job, but he took it once before, in 2019, only to resign after being the only player named in Major League Baseball’s report on the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal. The difference now is that he is a Hall of Famer. Managing the Mets, a team not lacking in either egos or expectations, is the baseball equivalent of walking a tightrope. Does Beltrán want the potential dent to his reputation?

One thing to consider: The Mets replaced nearly their entire coaching staff last offseason. A new manager surely would be empowered to hire some of his own coaches, resulting in more turnover. Hiring Beltrán likely would enable the Mets to keep more of their staff intact. He already is familiar with the current group.

Philadelphia Phillies

After the 1997 season, the late Davey Johnson resigned as manager of the Baltimore Orioles on the day he was named American League Manager of the Year. It was a preemptive strike by Johnson, who seemed likely to be dismissed, one way or another, as he feuded with owner Peter Angelos. A cheeky Baltimore Sun columnist, in his pre-bow-tie days, wrote, “If Angelos owned Disney World, he’d fire Mickey Mouse.”

Might history repeat, sort of, in Philly?

Mattingly might not win NL Manager of the Year over the Milwaukee Brewers’ Pat Murphy or the Atlanta Braves’ Walt Weiss, but the Phillies are 75-49 since he took over, the third-best record in the majors. A deep run in the postseason further would strengthen the argument for the Phillies to retain him. Then again, a quick exit would be all president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski would need to shift back into Cora mode.

The luster on Cora might have diminished some with the Boston Red Sox going 72-53 since Chad Tracy replaced him at 10-17. But Dombrowski and Cora, the architects of the Red Sox’s 2018 World Series title, remain close. And Cora, after his strained relationships with Chaim Bloom and Craig Breslow in Boston, surely would prefer to work for someone with whom he is comfortable – that is, if he wants to jump back in.

Cora, under contract with the Red Sox through next season, can sit out 2027 and collect the remainder of his salary, which averages $7.25 million per season. Then again, he might be mindful that the longer someone is out of the game, the more difficult it often is to return.