Aristide Disapproval Affects Clinton

Statements by deposed President Jean-Bertrand Aristide forcefully opposing a U.S.led invasion of Haiti could have a major influence on President Clinton as he decides whether to exercise that option, according to several experts.

Aristide had usually been coy when asked his views on an invasion but he dropped all pretense of ambiguity last month when he said, “I am against a military invasion. Never, never, never would I agree to be restored to power by an invasion.”

Former Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger said the statement undoubtedly will give Clinton second thoughts about an invasion.

“It has to deter him,” Eagleburger said in an interview. He said other countries would have grave reservations about joining a U.S.-led intervention force under a U.N. umbrella unless Aristide retracts the comment.

Administration officials reportedly have been sounding out countries around the hemisphere about their willingness to join an invasion force.

That search suffered a setback on Thursday when 13 Caribbean Community leaders agreed that the time for an invasion had not yet come, reversing a decision reached only a day earlier.

Bernard Aronson, a top aide on Latin America under President Bush, said, “It is difficult to justify an invasion when the elected president says he’s against it.” Aristide, elected in 1990, served only seven months before being deposed in a military coup.

Nonetheless, the prospects for an invasion appear to have heightened considerably in recent weeks as Haiti’s military leadership remains determined to hang on to power despite a global trade embargo and other sanctions. Another contributing factor has been the surge in Haitian boat people; since July 1, an average of about 1,500 a day has been fleeing, straining facilities set up to shelter them.

William H. Gray, Clinton’s special adviser on Haiti, indicated Friday that an invasion may be in the cards. “I think the prospect of an invasion grows as the coup leadership refuses to recognize that the world community has clearly called upon them to step down and allow democracy to be restored,” he said.

Senate Republican leader Bob Dole on Saturday blamed Clinton administration policies for escalating chaos in Haiti and called for a political solution.

“The issue is whether risking American lives to return President Aristide to power is in the U.S. national interest and in the interest of future U.S. Haitian relations,” the Kansas Republican said in a statement.

Former Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney said the United States should be prepared to leave forces in Haiti for a long time if military action is used to return Aristide to power.

“Haiti’s a mess. It’s been a mess for a long time,” Cheney said on CNN’s Evans & Novak program, to be broadcast Sunday. “Nineteen years of U.S. occupation earlier in this century didn’t fix it. And going back in again now with military force won’t fix it.”

U.S. officials sought to minimize the significance of Aristide’s comments. They note that Aristide has said frequently he cannot call for an invasion because the Haitian Constitution forbids it - hardly a categorical rejection.

But Eagleburger said Aristide’s strong statement of opposition, given to National Public Radio, goes far beyond the legal arguments he had cited previously.