One Certainty In Nfl Draft: Nobody Knows

There are no erasers on draftniks’ pencils, and what the draftniks rely on is the public’s notoriously short memory.

“Who the hell is Mel Kiper? He has no more credentials to do what he’s doing than my neighbor, and my neighbor’s a postman.” - Bill Tobin, Colts vice president T hat was the very best part of the NFL draft of 1994, wasn’t it?

It lasted less than 1 minute, and it didn’t involve a single selection or a trade. Just Bill Tobin’s televised savaging of the most exposed of those selfanointed, self-appointed draft “experts.”

With undisguised glee, Tobin later related: “I had 25 teams congratulate me either by phone or fax for exposing that little nerd.”

Of course. Nothing is quite so grating as presumed omnipotence. Nothing is quite so irritating as a knowit-all.

No one can be that certain of anything.

Well, another flesh market approaches and the Mel Kipers of the world, whose credentials are suspect at best and whose primary ability seems to be selfpromotion, are once again touting themselves.

The fact of the matter is this: Despite their airy assuredness, despite the utter certainty with which they toss off their pronouncements, they don’t know.

Because they can’t know. No one can. Not for sure.

Not even the people who do it for a living.

They use their calipers and their computers and their stopwatches and their ink blots; they measure body fat, brain mass, personality quirks, pharmaceutical intake. They do everything possible to remove chance from the process.

But they can’t. It is simply not possible.

There are prospects and there are suspects, but it is not possible to know who will turn out and who won’t. You may have a pretty good idea, but you cannot know beyond doubt because, for all their size and skills, they remain at heart that most capricious, unfathomable of creatures - a human being.

And yes, the evaluation process is much more sophisticated than it was, for example, in 1955 when a quarterback from the University of Louisville lasted until the ninth round, was eventually cut, and was picked up the following year by the Colts. And whatever became of Johnny Unitas, anyway?

But the process is still far from infallible.

What bothers me is this rush to instant judgment, this need to decide immediately who’s dumb as a stump and who’s shrewd.

Before this draft, we are told that it’s a very good one for halfbacks but a disaster if you’re shopping for inside linebackers; it’s a bountiful draft if you seek offensive linemen but barren and bleak if your need is at safety. Well, maybe all of this is true and maybe it isn’t.

But because the draftniks of the world have told anyone who will listen that this is so, they then base their analysis of the draft on their own standards. And they will all have engaged in that most futile, most oxymoronic of exercises - the mock draft - to determine beforehand whom they will criticize and whom they will praise.

There are no erasers on draftniks’ pencils, and what the draftniks rely on is the public’s notoriously short memory. That way, they need not be pestered by that bothersome thing known as accountability. By sundown Saturday, winners and losers will have been publicly determined by the omnipotent draftniks. Never mind that the draftees have yet to play a single down in the NFL; their worth to their new employer already will have been assessed.

In fact, it takes years for the true value of a draft to emerge.

What has become obvious with the sustained success of the 49ers is the importance of establishing a system of management and of coaching, and then staying with it, no matter how many players come and go, no matter how many coaches are hired and fired.

Bill Walsh established that system and it has remained, in his word, “unwavering.” He hasn’t coached there in seven seasons, but the principles he established remain in force. And the Niners don’t miss a beat.

The Eagles have a head coach who is a product of that system, and now Ray Rhodes is preparing for his first draft as a head coach. At his shoulder will be the ultimate draftnik, and though Jeff Lurie detests that appellation, this is the moment he has been anticipating ever since he spent the better part of $200 million of the family fortune to buy an NFL franchise.

The Eagles apparently are going to do the draft by committee, which need not necessarily be bad. But it is vital that the new regime establish its philosophy, its system, and whatever that is, stay with it. Be “unwavering.”

The paradox of the draft is that it is so frustrating but so important. It is frustrating because it is years before you see the fruits of your effort, rotten or ripe. And it is important because it is the best way to sustain a franchise.

The draft is how you put together a winning team.

Unfortunately, it is also how you put together a losing one.