Victory Has Sri Lanka At A Loss Capture Of Rebel Stronghold May Complicate Peace

Sri Lanka’s army, buoyant after capturing the Tamil rebels’ stronghold, is contemplating what to do next: Press on, pull back or dig in.

Military strategy, however, is tempered by the political goal of persuading the rebels to give up their rebellion for an independent homeland, and persuading tens of thousands of Tamil refugees, who fled Jaffna City as the army advanced, to return.

After a grueling 50-day campaign, the government raised the yellow-and-crimson flag over Jaffna on Tuesday. All but 400 of the city’s 120,000 citizens had fled, and the Tamil Tiger guerrillas had retreated into the jungles.

For the army, the temptation is strong to keep up the momentum and extend its control over all of the Jaffna Peninsula. But that would mean fighting on the home turf of a highly trained guerrilla force. It also could swell the number of refugees, already nearly 200,000.

In a speech Wednesday, President Chandrika Kumaratunga indicated that the army will probably dig in and try to persuade the refugees to come home.

Mrs. Kumaratunga urged Tamils to return to Jaffna, promising to establish government services to replace those set up by the rebels. She also pledged to guarantee the refugees’ safety and offered amnesty for rebels who surrender.

“There is no need for your children to sacrifice their lives any more,” she appealed on television. “You and your children can live in dignity and in peace as noble citizens of Sri Lanka.”

Murugasu Sivasithamparam, leader of the moderate Tamil United Liberation Front, said the government must take a conciliatory step to win over the northern Tamils.

“The government must declare a cease fire, which could encourage the Tamils to return,” he said.

More than 39,000 people have died in the civil war, which began in 1983. In the offensive to seize Jaffna, some 2,500 were killed.

But to prepare for the Jaffna offensive, the military stripped half its troops from the east, leaving that area vulnerable to a counteroffensive.

On Tuesday, the rebels attacked a police commando camp in the eastern Batticaloa district, killing 29 policemen. The military claimed 40 guerrillas and 18 civilians also were killed.