Egypt Cracks Down On Peaceful Backers Of An Islamic State Mubarak Stakes Everything On Crushing Muslim Dissent

In a sweeping crackdown on a powerful but nonviolent Muslim group, the government has made clear its vision of the future: Islamic rule will not be imposed in Egypt, even by peaceful means.

Whether that vision is viable is by no means certain. Nearly all Arab states in the past decade have used repression to try to crush Islamic opposition. At best, the result has been simmering discontent; at worst, full-blown civil war.

For Egypt, President Hosni Mubarak’s all-or-nothing gambit will likely be a turning point after 14 years in power. It sends a signal to other Mideast nations - and the United States, Egypt’s main patron - that one of the region’s most powerful states will no longer tolerate serious opposition from even non-violent Islamic groups.

“The government is trying to say we really mean business,” said Mohammed Sid-Ahmed, a leftist columnist and political commentator. “There is a beginning of a crackdown vis-a-vis the Islamic trend in general and the moderates in particular.”

On Friday, police rounded up 200 Muslim Brotherhood activists in two cities. It was the sharpest escalation in the government’s campaign against the brotherhood, Egypt’s largest Islamic organization, with perhaps 1 million supporters.

The group, which envisions the creation of an Islamic state through democratic means, is technically illegal but has been allowed to operate openly and even compete in elections.

Some viewed the brotherhood as an alternative to Muslim extremists fighting to overthrow Mubarak and impose Islamic rule. More than 780 people, most of them militants and police, have died in three years of rebellion.

But since January, the government has accused the brotherhood of forging ties with extremists. The crackdown reveals Mubarak’s decision to write off the possibility of compromise with mainstream Islamic opponents.

It also shows the government considers the brotherhood strong enough to pose a threat to the state. It may hope to discredit the group before this fall’s parliamentary elections.

But there’s a potential for a backlash. Commentators warned the crackdown would strengthen the hand of Islamists, both violent and non-violent, by closing off any other avenue of opposition.

“If there is no lawful way to change, the people have to disobey the government and we think that there is now a real discontent among people toward the government,” said Magdi Hossein, editor of al-Shaab, an Islamic-oriented newspaper.

The government often rounds up suspected militants, particularly in the wake of assassinations or attacks in southern Egypt. But Friday’s sweep came without warning, and was one of the biggest single-day roundups since 1981, when President Anwar Sadat arrested more than 1,500 Islamists and mainstream opponents, including politicians, journalists, teachers and lawyers.

Sadat’s purge was a desperate move to forestall growing Islamic militancy, disenchantment with his dictatorial style and the 1979 peace treaty with Israel. That resentment led to his assassination by Muslim militants.

Mubarak also faces disenchantment. An initial outpouring of relief after he escaped an assassination attempt in June in Ethiopia has dissipated, in part due to a media blitz of Mubarak’s speeches and patriotic programming.

Economic problems remain. One in five Egyptians is unemployed and per capita incomes have declined since Mubarak came to power in 1981.

More generally, the government fails to inspire confidence.