Enemies Each Hold About Half Of Bosnia Further Bosnian Serb Losses Would Endanger Hopes For Peace, Diplomats Say

Croatian and Bosnian government troops, pushing toward the Serbian stronghold of Banja Luka, have now achieved on the battlefield the roughly equal division of Bosnia that is envisioned in a peace plan sponsored by the United States. But further gains on the battlefield could cause the peace initiative to disintegrate, U.N. officials and Western diplomats said on Monday.

The Serbian president, Slobodan Milosevic, the chief peace negotiator for the reeling Bosnian Serbs, echoed the warning and urged the international community on Monday to exert its influence to bring about an immediate end to hostilities in Bosnia.

“The split between forces of the Muslim-Croat federation and the Serbs is now about 50-50, but the Serbs are daily losing ground,” said a Western diplomat. “If the offensive stops here we have a chance for peace. If it continues we could plunge into another round of warfare.”

The current rout of the Bosnian Serb forces, crippled by two weeks of NATO air and missile strikes that have worsened the Serbs’ longstanding problems with their supply lines and the growing strength of their Bosnian government and Croatian foes, has radically changed the map of Bosnia.

Western diplomats in Belgrade said that if the Croat and Muslim forces attacked Banja Luka, a city of 200,000 that has been flooded in the last few days with some 100,000 refugees, it would make it difficult, if not impossible, for the Serbs to approve the American-brokered peace deal.

A bigger fear is that an attack on Banja Luka could provoke Milosovic to send in Yugoslav army troops from Serbia to protect the reeling Bosnian Serbs, setting off an even wider war in the Balkans.

Some military analysts said they doubted that the Bosnian and Croatian forces would march on Banja Luka because it is fortified and because of the risk of drawing in the Yugoslav army.

So far, though, Croat and Muslim officials have refused to restrain their forces despite heavy American pressure, Western diplomats said. The Bosnian government army, Bosnian Croats and regular Croatian army troops have rolled back shattered Serb forces in the last few weeks, capturing numerous crucial towns and about 30 percent of the territory that had been controlled by the Serbs with little resistance.

Richard Holbrooke, assistant secretary of state, who held talks with Milosevic on Monday in Belgrade, said he had made “a little progress” in his efforts to secure a peace agreement with the Bosnian Serbs. It would give the Bosnian Serbs 49 percent of the land and the Bosnian Muslims and Croats 51 percent.