Campaigns Study Electoral Votes Clinton’s Big Numbers Dictate Gop Strategy

Four months before the Nov. 5 election, Bob Dole shows signs of bringing home Republican voters to his fold, yet he faces an uphill challenge to break President Clinton’s grip on the Electoral College.

The president’s strength is anchored in electoral giants California and New York, which together carry nearly one-third of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. Elsewhere, Clinton leads comfortably throughout most of the Northeast, mid-Atlantic and industrial Midwest.

Indeed, if the election were held today, most analysts believe Clinton would get well in excess of 300 electoral votes, perhaps close to 400, of the 538 divided among states based on their congressional delegation size.

“One has to assume the race will tighten and ultimately come down to the big industrial states,” said Andrew Kohut, a pollster with the independent Pew Research Center. “But before that can happen, Dole has to get on more solid footing in the traditionally Republican southern and mountain states.”

Conventional wisdom has held that Republicans enjoy a natural Electoral College advantage. That’s not the case in 1996.

Dole’s challenge is perhaps best illustrated by his problems in the two big states that are the foundation of any GOP electoral formula: Texas and Florida. While both have deep Republican traditions in recent presidential elections, polling in both states shows Clinton and Dole in a dead heat. Dole also started the month trailing in Ohio; no Republican has won the presidency without winning this key Midwestern state.

Clinton, on the other hand, has had the advantage of directing millions of dollars in primary campaign and Democratic Party funds to television advertising designed to protect his lead in general election battlegrounds. “A good portion of the lead the president enjoys is a direct result” of those ads, said Democratic National Committee Chairman Donald Fowler.

Given Clinton’s financial strategy, some Republicans voice relief the Democratic incumbent’s lead isn’t more lopsided.

Clinton’s big early electoral lead is a factor in virtually every major Dole campaign decision.

Dole’s schedule in the month since he quit the Senate, for example, has targeted predominantly Republican areas of battleground states to solidify GOP support. Talk of moving up the unveiling of his tax-cutting economic plan to mid-July instead of August also is driven by dismay in the Dole camp that he hasn’t cut deeper into Clinton’s lead. Dole’s decision on a running mate also will be influenced by his standing a month from now.

Clinton’s electoral targeting is in some ways more difficult than for Dole because he is competitive in many Republican bastions.

“It is the best of all problems to have,” said Clinton deputy campaign manager Ann Lewis. “But eventually budget and targeting decisions have to be made.”

There are two big uncertainties in midsummer: whether Dole will follow through on his commitment to run a full-fledged campaign in California and who Ross Perot’s Reform Party nominates as its presidential candidate.