Does Dole Deserve Women’s Votes?

The joke around Washington these days is that Bill Clinton is so confident about re-election that he is dating again (barrump, bump!)

That may show how cynical Washington humor is these days. It also illustrates that President Clinton is not the one with a “woman problem” in the 1996 presidential election. Bob Dole is. Only the Republican’s problem is that women voters are not attracted to him.

There is a gender gap between the two candidates, and it has been growing.

A trio of polls in March showed that as many as 60 percent of women voters preferred Clinton. Only 38 percent preferred Dole. A Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll in late June showed support for Dole among women voters dropping as low as 33 percent.

The gap is ironic. After all, Dole has a woman, Sheila Burke, as his chief of staff, and several women occupy key campaign positions. His wife, Elizabeth, is more popular than first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton, who recently was described by one British observer as “the first liability.”

In contrast, Bill Clinton’s inner circle still consists largely of young white guys.

But the women’s vote put Clinton on top in 1992.

Why don’t women want to vote for Dole now?

Actually, the gender gap is both a party problem and a candidate problem. In recent election cycles, more women have been voting Democratic than Republican.

“The ‘choice’ issue is largely symbolic, but I don’t think the gap is just about abortion,” said one longtime political adviser in Austin, Texas. “I think it’s a critique of Dole, the unresolved ‘meanness’ issue. Women are not drawn to that. Women voters tend to sense if the candidate is somebody they would like to have in their home. They may think that Dole is not exactly on their side, that he has a value system from the ‘50s. If he can’t come up with a vision that appeals to them, they’ll stick with someone who seems more empathetic.”

Another Austin political consultant pointed out that women make up 54 percent of the electorate in Texas and 52 percent nationally, so appealing to women in tossup states may prove crucial.

But the consultant said that Dole also has a growing problem with older voters, who are highly likely to vote. Apparently, the scare raised by Democrats that Republicans want to “slash” Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security has soured some senior citizens on Republicans in general.

Indeed, a study this spring by Sasha Wozniak, a graduate student at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, showed that the strongest proponents of Clinton and the Democratic Party are retired women, ethnic minority women, single women, Catholic women and professional women. “Retired women, Clinton’s most motivated supporters, gave Clinton a 33-point lead over Dole,” Wozniak said.

So what can Dole do about this?

Seriously consider women for high-level posts in his administration. Naming a female running mate would be a transparent strategy, but it might inject some needed interest into a blah campaign. Problem is that one of the highest-profile candidates, New Jersey Gov. Christine Todd Whitman, recently was adamant in ruling herself out.

At the least, Dole should put more of his female supporters out front at the San Diego nominating convention and at the front of the line for key Cabinet positions.

Be more vocal in supporting proposals such as anti-stalking measures and Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison’s individual retirement accounts for homemakers. Dole also should talk about micro-loan programs that allow women to set up small businesses at home, everything from baking to day care to computer programming.

Listen to women. The Clinton administration has been very shrewd about setting up kaffeeklatsches around the country with local leaders and female appointees, supposedly just to “hear their concerns.” The Republican Party has an outreach program called “A Seat at the Table,” but moderate women may feel increasingly uncomfortable in a party in which rigidly right-wing types are the most visible in party operations. Is the national party really listening to women’s concerns about education, the environment, domestic abuse?

When she was working as a Dole strategist, Mary Matalin observed that women care about the same issues as men, but they want to hear about them differently.

In the final analysis, most women simply may want themselves and their concerns to be treated with respect. With the GOP national convention only a few weeks away, Dole would be prudent to talk less about cigarettes and more about how his programs would benefit women as well as men.

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