The Oscar Scoop Don’t Mind Film Critic Dan Webster. He’s Still Grumbling About Oscar’s Oversights. But If You Want To Know Who Will Win Tonight, He’s Got The Story.

When all is said and done concerning the annual Hollywood love-in called the Academy Awards, the final decisions will come down to numbers.

Here are a few: There are 5,032 voting members this year.

Some 253 movies were eligible for Oscar nominations.

A total of 2,113 Oscars have been handed out since the first Academy Awards program of 1927-28.

No films beginning with the letters x, y or z were eligible for Oscar nominations this year.

Jennifer Jason Leigh is 37 years old.

That last number, of course, has nothing to do with the 68th Annual Academy Awards extravaganza, which will be broadcast to Spokane tonight beginning at 6 (on KXLY-4).

It’s just included to help set the tone for this year’s show, which is as special for who is NOT nominated as for who is. Leigh, for example.

Or Ron Howard, Ang Lee, Nicole Kidman, John Travolta, Martin Scorsese, “Leaving Las Vegas” and - representing the entire African-American community - Don Cheadle, whose role as a sociopath in “Devil in a Blue Dress” was one of the memorable aspects of that Carl Franklin film.

But enough of what the show won’t be. On to what we can expect.

Following is one critic’s preview:

BEST ACTOR

The nominees: Nicolas Cage (“Leaving Las Vegas”), Richard Dreyfuss (“Mr. Holland’s Opus”), Anthony Hopkins (“Nixon”), Sean Penn (“Dead Man Walking”), Massimo Troisi (“The Postman”).

Oscar’s pick: Cage.

Webster’s pick: Cage.

Why: Having won just about every critic’s award in existence, and probably a couple that aren’t, Cage is a big favorite here. His biggest contenders in quality are Penn and Hopkins, in popularity Dreyfuss. But this is the year the Valley Boy should make good.

BEST ACTRESS

The nominees: Susan Sarandon (“Dead Man Walking”), Elisabeth Shue (“Leaving Las Vegas”), Sharon Stone (“Casino”), Meryl Streep (“The Bridges of Madison County”), Emma Thompson (“Sense and Sensibility”).

Oscar’s pick: Sarandon.

Webster’s pick: Jennifer Jason Leigh.

Why: OK, I’ve got to get over this. The actress who I really think should win is … Nicole Kidman. No, no, no, she wasn’t nominated either. In that case, Sarandon’s fifth nomination, coming in a film that showcases her talents to perfection, makes her as deserving as anyone.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The nominees: James Cromwell (“Babe”), Ed Harris (“Apollo 13”), Brad Pitt (“12 Monkeys”), Tim Roth (“Rob Roy”), Kevin Spacey (“The Usual Suspects”).

Oscar’s pick: Harris.

Webster’s pick: Spacey.

Why: Harris has been around for years, putting in one solid performance after another. And his was the one acting role in the astronaut flick that elicited critical raves. While Cromwell was touching as the little pig’s partner, he had about as much dialogue as Holly Hunter did in “The Piano” (which, come to think of it, may bode well for his chances). But of all these worthy nominations, Spacey is the only one who virtually carried the movie in which he performed.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The nominees: Joan Allen (“Nixon”), Kathleen Quinlan (“Apollo 13”), Mira Sorvino (“Mighty Aphrodite”), Mare Winningham (“Georgia”), Kate Winslet (“Sense and Sensibility”).

Oscar’s pick: Allen.

Webster’s pick: Sorvino.

Why: This one is so difficult because it is the one category in which at least three of the nominees - Allen, Sorvino and Winslet - deserve to win for pulling off performances so good and yet so unique from the others. And don’t forget Winningham, who was the yin to Jennifer Jason Leigh’s superb yang and who, to complicate matters even further, sang songs of her own composition.

BEST DIRECTOR

The nominees: Mike Figgis (“Leaving Las Vegas”), Mel Gibson (“Braveheart”), Chris Noonan (“Babe”), Michael Radford (“The Postman”), Tim Robbins (“Dead Man Walking”).

Oscar’s pick: Gibson.

Webster’s pick: Robbins.

Gibson is not without talent, and he actually made “Braveheart” into something watchable. But it took even Clint Eastwood decades of dues-paying to get to the point where the Academy took him seriously. Even so, in this mixed company - without “Apollo 13” Director’s Guild winner Ron Howard and “Sense and Sensibility” overseer Ang Lee - Gibson stands out. However, Robbins deserves credit for putting together a nigh-perfect movie that contained two of the year’s most riveting performances.

BEST PICTURE

The nominees: “Apollo 13,” “Babe,” “Braveheart,” “The Postman,” “Sense and Sensibility.”

Oscar’s pick: “Apollo 13.”

Webster’s pick: “Sense and Sensibility.”

Why: Academy voters may want to: 1, compensate Ron Howard for not getting a Best Director nomination; or 2, they may want to reward a film that is a celebration of a time when America was still the hero of its own global miniseries. Then again, Academy voters may just like seeing brawny men in short skirts. Whatever, Ang Lee took a work of literature and made it sing on the screen - no small feat.

ASSORTED OTHERS

Original Screenplay: Christopher McQuarrie, “The Usual Suspects.” Why: Randall Wallace may take home the gold for “Braveheart,” but none of the nominated scripts is as dazzlingly clever as McQuarrie’s.

Adapted Screenplay: Emma Thompson, “Sense and Sensibility.” Why: Because she deserves something for bringing this superb production to the screen.

Foreign Language Film: “Antonia’s Line.” Why: Because it’s the only one this critic has seen.

Live Action Short Film: “Lieberman in Love.” Why: See Foreign Language Film, above.

Original Song: “Colors of the Wind,” from “Pocahontas.” Why: Doesn’t Disney have a monopoly on this award?

Documentary feature/short: Go with “Anne Frank Remembered” for the former, either “Never Give Up The 20th Century Odyssey of Herbert Zipper” or “One Survivor Remembers” for the latter. Why: All involve the Holocaust.

, DataTimes ILLUSTRATION: 5 Color photos