Minimum Wage Hike Backed Although Poll Shows Support, Voters Likely Won’t Have Say

Copyright 1996, The Idaho Spokesman-Review

Idahoans would easily pass an initiative to raise the minimum wage, but the tax-limiting One Percent Initiative is too close to call.

Those are among the findings of a statewide poll conducted last week by Mason Dixon Political Media Research for The Idaho Spokesman-Review and two television stations. The poll asked 802 likely voters for their feelings on six possible ballot issues, and found wide variation between men and women and between older and younger voters.

On the One Percent Initiative, which would cap property taxes, voters age 45 and older were solidly in support, but younger voters were almost as solidly opposed.

The minimum wage measure was more popular with women and younger voters, and had more support in North Idaho than in the south. But it was overwhelmingly supported, 59 percent to 32 percent.

Del Ali, Mason Dixon vice president, said Idaho’s support for minimum wage hikes is the lowest of any state he’s polled, with most states over the 80 percent mark. “It ought to tell the Republicans something if in a state like Idaho you’ve got overwhelming support for it,” he said. “They’ve got to look at these numbers and say, you know, we’re taking a beating.”

Ironically, the minimum wage initiative probably won’t make the ballot. Randy Ambuehl, Idaho AFL-CIO president, said Friday, “I frankly don’t think we’re going to get the signatures.”

The unions, aided by some Democratic candidates, have gathered about 30 percent of the more than 41,000 signatures they need, but only a month remains, and they have no money to pay professional signature-gatherers.

Ambuehl noted that the poll shows widespread support for an idea that the Idaho Legislature refused to even give a hearing for the past two years. He blamed business interests that make the bulk of Idaho’s campaign contributions, saying, “We’ve got the best government money can buy.”

Ron Rankin, author of the One Percent Initiative, hailed the poll results as encouraging, even though they appear to show a drop from a Boise State University survey done in February.

“We haven’t had our side presented at all,” Rankin said. “All we’ve had so far is negative from bureaucrats.”

The poll found 43 percent in favor of the property tax-limiting initiative and 40 percent against, with 17 percent undecided. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

The BSU survey, which asked 592 Idahoans about the measure in February, found 56 percent in favor. Since then, Gov. Phil Batt has warned the initiative will harm the state’s finances or force hikes in other taxes.

Rankin said he wasn’t surprised that voters aged 18-29 were opposed to the initiative, 46 percent to 37 percent.

“There are a much higher percentage of people in that age bracket that do not own their own homes, and therefore would not have any idea what the taxes are,” he said.

Members of the next age group, 30-44, opposed the initiative by 44 percent to 38 percent. Rankin said they tend to have a mortgage and not see directly how much of their house payment goes to taxes.

“Older folks have their property paid off, and they get their bill, so they know what it’s costing them.”

Respondents aged 45-59 favored the One Percent by 48 percent to 33 percent, with those over age 60 close behind with 48 percent in favor and 37 percent opposed.

The poll showed a proposed anti-gay rights initiative ahead, with 42 percent in favor, 29 percent opposed and 29 percent undecided. Ali said on this type of issue, the undecided group tends to favor the measure.

“I’m elated,” said Kelly Johannsen, executive director of the Idaho Citizens Alliance, which is pushing for the measure. “As we go around from county to county, city to city and town to town and talk to people, what we see is the majority of the people support what we’re doing. They feel threatened by the homosexual lifestyle being supported in the state.”

However, Johannsen said the ICA has collected only about a quarter of the signatures it needs to get the measure on the ballot.

Johannsen said she’s not worried. “Last time, two-thirds of our signatures came in the last month, and we are counting on that again.”

The ICA’s last anti-gay rights initiative failed narrowly in the 1994 election.

Mary Rohlfing, co-chairman of the Decline to Sign campaign against the ICA’s initiative, said her polls show the initiative losing. “I think that a lot of people have the impression that this is an initiative that’s kinder and gentler than the 1994 Proposition 1, but in fact … it’s much more extreme than 1994.”

She also noted that the U.S. Supreme Court struck down a Colorado anti-gay rights law on Monday, after the poll was taken.

An initiative to ban the use of dogs and bait in hunting black bear, and restrict spring bear hunts, seems to be a battle of the sexes.

Overall, 36 percent said they favored the initiative, with 34 percent opposed and 30 percent undecided.

The breakdown showed men opposing the measure 44 percent to 33 percent, and women supporting it 39 percent to 24 percent.

Another proposed initiative would reject the governor’s nuclear waste pact with the federal government and require legislative and voter approval of future agreements.

The poll found 46 percent would vote for the initiative, 31 percent were opposed and 23 percent undecided. Women and younger voters were most strongly in favor.

Idahoans also support a measure proposed by a national term-limits group that would direct members of Congress to vote for a constitutional amendment limiting their terms. The initiative also would require any who oppose term limits to state that on the ballot when they run for reelection, and put the state on record favoring a constitutional convention on term limits.

Sixty percent said they’d vote for the initiative, with 36 percent against and 4 percent undecided.

Two years ago, Idaho passed a sweeping term-limits measure with a 60 percent vote, but the section on congressional terms was ruled unconstitutional. So now Idaho has term limits just for state and local offices.

, DataTimes ILLUSTRATION: Graphic: The public’s voice on the ballot