New Technology Brings Digital Wave Of The Future
Digital television goes on the air next year. Is this any time to plunk down your money for a new TV set?
“Definitely,” said Ed Korenman of the Consumer Electronics Manufacturer’s Association, a trade group. “A television is a great buy for the holiday season. You’re getting a better bargain, better technology, more television.”
“Absolutely,” agreed Evan Beckford, manager of video and photo-optical testing for Consumer Reports magazine. “You’re getting a good value, in part because manufacturers are looking forward to the next wave.”
That next wave starts Dec. 31, 1998, when broadcasters in big markets - and Gotham is No. 1 - have promised the Federal Communications Commission they’ll start transmitting a digital signal, known as DTV, along with their conventional telecast signal.
DTV is a beam of 1’s and 0’s that new TV receivers can convert into multiple, static-free channels of conventional television, or into one big, wide-screen high-definition (HDTV) picture, with compact disc-quality sound.
“That doesn’t mean your television will become obsolete when the digital signal has begun,” Korenman said. Stations still will broadcast the old-style analog signal for those without digital gear.
“Even once the analog is shut off - who knows when, the earliest possible is in 2006 - your set will still work with cable and satellite boxes, and set-top boxes will be available to convert digital to analog TV.”
The first digital TV sets will be unveiled next month at the giant, annual Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas - along with price tags expected in the $2,500 to $10,000 range, Korenman said.
Despite the big-ticket prices, “We still expect digital sets to sell very well,” he said. “Nearly 20 percent of U.S. households have purchased a television set for $2,000 or more.”
By the end of 1999, every station in the Top 10 markets will have a digital signal, and the technology will move into the smaller markets.
Consumer Reports’ Beckford reckons it will be “many, many years” before DTV takes over as TV’s driving force.
“The true value of HDTV is in the larger screen sizes. For those people who have 13 or 19 or 20-inch sets, the benefit is questionable,” he said. “Right now, there’s a mismatch between where HDTV shines and the people who buy the most television sets.”
Beckford also recalled seeing an analog HDTV demonstration a decade ago. “The technological community came to the conclusion they were doing it wrong and went off in an entirely different direction,” he said.
The same uncertainty faces digital TV.
“Very little is certain from a technological standpoint, because new processes get developed, and very little is certain from a marketing perspective,” he said.
He cited the rise in the early ‘80s of the VHS-standard video cassette recorder over the technologically superior Beta format developed by Sony. “Because software was available for the VHS recorders and not for Beta, Beta died,” Beckford said.
“There are so many unknowables that anyone who suggests they really know what’s going to happen - don’t trust ‘em.”