Boeing Predicts Smooth Flight Aerospace Giant Sees Continued Strength For Aviation Industry Over Next 20 Years

The world’s airlines will buy more than 16,160 new jetliners worth about $1.1 trillion during the next 20 years, Boeing Co. predicted in its annual report on the market for new passenger aircraft.

Demand for new airplanes will be driven by a 4.9 percent average annual increase in air traffic, Boeing said.

“The industry continues on the upswing,” said Bruce Dennis, vice president for marketing at Boeing’s commercial airplane group. “It looks good out there.”

The forecast is similar to the one Boeing made last year, when it said the world’s airlines would buy 15,900 new airplanes worth the same $1.1 trillion.

Boeing’s forecast for the increase in air travel is slightly less optimistic than it was last year, when the company said air travel would grow 5.1 percent a year through 2015.

The company lowered its forecast to 4.9 percent this year to reflect slower growth in the U.S., Dennis said.

Business at Boeing has been improving since 1995, when airlines started ordering large numbers of aircraft to replace old aircraft and add new ones to their fleets.

Boeing’s orders for new aircraft almost doubled to a record $53 billion in 1996. The world’s largest commercial airplane maker took orders for 717 new aircraft last year, compared with 346 in 1995 and just 120 in 1994.

Dennis said the Seattle-based airplane maker would see strong orders again this year, though he declined to be specific. “I think 1997 is going to be a very good year,” he said.

Boeing will be producing 40 airplanes a month in the fourth quarter of this year, its highest output ever.

About 11,500 jetliners are flying today, 7,000 of which were made by Boeing. The fleet will grow to 23,600 passenger and cargo planes by 2016. That number accounts for older planes that are retired from service.

The greatest demand for new aircraft will come from Asia, where Boeing expects air travel to grow 6.6 percent a year, compared with 3.1 percent in the U.S., the company said. Airlines in the Pacific will account for 33 percent of the $1.1 trillion invested in new planes in the next two decades, Boeing said.

The greatest demand will be for smaller airplanes that carry 100 to 240 passengers, Boeing said. That segment of the market will account for 43 percent of all aircraft investment.

The weakest market during the next 20 years will be for planes that hold more than 400 passengers, including Boeing’s 747, the world’s largest commercial aircraft, Boeing said. About 18 percent of all investment will go into such planes.