A Virtual Disaster In Portland Computer Earthquake Model Prepares City For The Worst

Sun., March 16, 1997

Associated Press

A new federal study indicates a moderate earthquake in the city would cause more than 2,600 casualties, including 39 deaths, and result in about $9 billion in property damage.

The study was based on a computer model of a magnitude 6.5 quake centered in the West Hills.

In addition, the study estimates 13,000 households would be displaced, requiring short-term shelter for 8,382 people.

The study also said 34 fires would break out in the quake’s aftermath, threatening 1,405 people and $89 million in property. Transportation system damage would total $300 million, and utility losses would total $183.5 million.

The pilot study is part of a 3-1/2-year project to develop and test a computer-modeling technique for earthquake estimates for U.S. cities. The study will help government planners reduce the impact of quakes and develop emergency response strategies, said O. Gerald Uba, coordinator of the natural hazards program for Metro, the tri-county planning agency.

“There’s not a lot of money available for governments to use in preparing for earthquakes, so the study is a good tool to help us be more cost-effective in our decision-making,” Uba said.

The report was released in Portland at a regional natural-hazards planning workshop for emergency-management and other government officials.

The National Institute of Building Sciences conducted the study, which considered geologic hazards and building types, for the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

FEMA chose the Portland area because it is the size needed to test all the modeling technique’s features and because it is in a high-risk seismic zone that could provide a real test of the study’s estimated losses.

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