It’s All ‘English’ Desert Epic Figures To Win In Several Major Categories

Love them or hate them, and it’s possible to do both at once, the Academy Awards are the closest thing we have to a universal measure of American cinema.

And maybe American culture as well.

Think about it: The critics organizations usually reward films that attempt to offer something different from the mainstream. Meanwhile, programs such as the People’s Choice Awards make it their job to equate popularity with quality - which explains how entertainments such as “The Nutty Professor” and “Independence Day” win over films of actual substance.

Oscar typically takes the middle road.

Thus this year we have a fine example of pop filmmaking, “Jerry Maguire,” vying for Best Picture with such artistic favorites as “The English Patient,” “Fargo” and “Shine.” We have veteran performers such as Lauren Bacall going up against actual actresses for Best Supporting Actress.

And we have the near-comical situation where someone named Adam Schlesinger, the composer of a hummable pop tune called “That Thing You Do,” finds himself in competition with such august musical presences as Barbra Streisand, Marvin Hamlisch et al (“I Finally Found Someone” from “The Mirror Has Two Faces”) and Andrew Lloyd Webber and Tim Rice (“You Must Love Me” from “Evita”).

So, truly, in keeping with the essential democratic ideal, the Oscars offer something for everyone.

All things considered, it is amazing that the nominees for the 69th annual Academy Awards are as good as they are. Interestingly enough, the biggest moneymakers - unlike some past years - are missing in every major category.

Is that a travesty? Not really. For if it were, then paintings of dogs playing poker would sell for millions of dollars and Van Goghs would hang in trailer-park common rooms.

Instead, we have a Best Picture list that reflects actual attempts to study the human condition.

“The English Patient,” for example, pits a crew of characters against the threat posed by world cataclysm. “Shine” and “Sling Blade’ examine the various ways that characters with developmental and/ or emotional disabilities struggle with the demands of daily life.

“The People vs. Larry Flynt” is a spirited, if controversial, defense of the First Amendment.

Even the slightest of the lot, “Jerry Maguire,” explores the life of a man - a sports agent, no less - as he battles his own developing conscience.

It’s true that some of the year’s truly impressive achievements - Kenneth Branagh’s “Hamlet,” John Sayles’ “Lone Star,” Danny Boyle’s “Trainspotting,” Denzel Washington in “Courage Under Fire” and too many more to count - were overlooked (or at least mostly ignored).

But that’s nothing new. Oscar, like life itself, isn’t always fair.

But … enough. In our annual preview of Oscarfest, which will be held Monday, we offer the following guesses as to who will win what and how many. We do so with the help of the 779 readers who participated in our Oscar contest.

As always, though, our crystal ball likely will prove a bit cloudy.

Best Actor

Tom Cruise, “Jerry Maguire.”

Ralph Fiennes, “The English Patient.”

Woody Harrelson, “The People vs. Larry Flynt.”

Geoffrey Rush, “Shine.”

Billy Bob Thornton, “Sling Blade.”

Spokesman-Review readers’ pick: Geoffrey Rush.

Webster’s pick: Geoffrey Rush.

Oscar likes characters with emotional problems. And while Thornton’s performance is a gem of minimalist acting, Rush has won virtually every other actor’s award of note. This is Cruise’s second nomination, and his performance doesn’t come close to matching the work he did in 1989’s “Born on the 4th of July” (his first Oscar nod). But stranger things have happened.

Best Actress

Brenda Blethyn, “Secrets & Lies.”

Diane Keaton, “Marvin’s Room.”

Frances McDormand, “Fargo.”

Kristin Scott Thomas, “The English Patient.”

Emily Watson, “Breaking the Waves.”

S-R readers: Frances McDormand.

Webster: Brenda Blethyn.

Flip a coin here. Blethyn, so moving as the white mother of a black daughter, won the Golden Globe. But McDormand, whose presence helped provide the offbeat “Fargo” with a solid base, is every bit as effective. If one of the other three nominees wins, it’ll probably be because the vote was split between these two.

Best Supporting

Actor Cuba Gooding Jr., “Jerry Maguire.”

William H. Macy, “Fargo.”

Armin Mueller-Stahl, “Shine.”

Edward Norton, “Primal Fear.”

James Woods, “The Ghosts of Mississippi.”

S-R readers: Cuba Gooding Jr.

Webster: Cuba Gooding Jr.

How do you choose among this talented quintet? Golden Globe winner Norton, in his screen debut, was amazing (twice) in “Primal Fear.” Macy fit his character to perfection, as did Mueller-Stahl. And Woods, given the right part, likely would be nominated every year. But Gooding, no slouch in the talent department, is in the right movie at the right time of his career.

Best Supporting Actress

Joan Allen, “The Crucible.”

Lauren Bacall, “The Mirror Has Two Faces.”

Juliette Binoche, “The English Patient.”

Barbara Hershey, “The Portrait of a Lady.”

Marianne Jean-Baptiste, “Secrets & Lies.”

S-R readers: Lauren Bacall.

Webster: Joan Allen.

At age 72, Bacall falls into the let’sreward-her-before-she-dies category, which is not something to take lightly. But her role was essentially nothing, even if she labored to make something special of it. Allen, who missed out as Best Actress for “Nixon” last year, is popular and talented and provided the virtually overlooked “The Crucible” with one of its only bright spots. Binoche and Hershey, though long shots, could surprise.

Best Director

Anthony Minghella, “The English Patient.”

Joel Coen, “Fargo.”

Milos Forman, “The People vs. Larry Flynt.”

Mike Leigh, “Secrets & Lies.”

Scott Hicks, “Shine.”

S-R readers: Anthony Minghella.

Webster: Anthony Minghella.

Minghella, the pick of the Directors’ Guild, should win - unless, of course, they give it to Forman (whose picture wasn’t even nominated). Or to Leigh. Or to Hicks. Or Coen. Hope this clears things up for you.

Best Picture

“The English Patient.”

“Fargo.”

“Jerry Maguire.”

“Secrets & Lies.”

“Shine.”

S-R readers: “The English Patient.”

Webster: “The English Patient.”

Minghella’s masterpiece, which is based on Michael Ondaatje’s Booker Prize-winning novel, is this year’s equivalent of “Out of Africa.” Bet the baby’s college fund on this one.

Oscar odds and ends

Best Foreign Language Film: S-R readers like Russia’s “Prisoner of the Mountains.” But the Czech Republic’s “Kolya,” besides being an intelligent and moving little film, features an academy favorite: a kid too cute to believe.

Best Original Screenplay: The readers are virtually split between “Fargo” and “Shine.” But note this: “Fargo” authors Joel and Ethan Coen won the Writers’ Guild of America’s award.

Best Adapted Screenplay: “The English Patient” is a runaway favorite of S-R readers, but the Writers’ Guild gave its prize to Billy Bob Thornton for “Sling Blade.”

Best Documentary Feature: “When We Were Kings” is Leon Gast’s excellent study of the 1974 heavyweight championship fight between Muhammad Ali and George Foreman. Its only drawback: It may be too well-made, and popular besides, for academy voters, who prefer small, roughly made films that no one ever sees.

Webster’s personal picks: But enough about what we think the academy plans to do. If granted the authority, I myself would hand out Oscars to Billy Bob Thornton, Frances McDormand, Cuba Gooding Jr. (with apologies to Edward Norton), Juliette Binoche, John Sayles and “Lone Star.”

But no one ever asks my opinion.

, DataTimes ILLUSTRATION: 21 Photos (18 color)

MEMO: This sidebar appeared with the story: HERE’S HOW OUR READERS VOTED Here’s how the 779 readers who entered our Oscar contest voted for the top categories:

Best Picture “The English Patient,” 496 “Jerry Maguire,” 109 “Shine,” 83 “Fargo,” 68 “Secrets & Lies,” 18

Best Actress Frances McDormand, “Fargo,” 281 Kristin Scott Thomas, “The English Patient,” 200 Diane Keaton, “Marvin’s Room,” 145 Brenda Blethyn, “Secrets & Lies,” 123 Emily Watson, “Breaking the Waves,” 26

Best Actor Geoffrey Rush, “Shine,” 262 Tom Cruise, “Jerry Maguire,” 215 Ralph Fiennes, “The English Patient,” 172 Billy Bob Thornton, “Sling Blade,” 63 Woody Harrelson, “The People vs. Larry Flynt,” 61

Best Supporting Actress Lauren Bacall, “The Mirror Has Two Faces,” 375 Juliette Binoche, “The English Patient,” 174 Marianne Jean-Baptiste, “Secrets & Lies,” 94 Barbara Hershey, “The Portrait of a Lady,” 74 Joan Allen, “The Crucible,” 49

Best Supporting Actor Cuba Gooding Jr., “Jerry Maguire,” 323 James Woods, “The Ghosts of Mississippi,” 203 Edward Norton, “Primal Fear,” 92 William H. Macy, “Fargo,” 84 Armin Mueller-Stahl, “Shine,” 68

Best Director Anthony Minghella, “The English Patient,” 424 Milos Forman, “The People vs. Larry Flynt,” 106 Joel Coen, “Fargo,” 104 Scott Hicks, “Shine,” 104 Mike Leigh, “Secrets & Lies,” 25