Boomers Face ‘Graybeard Ceiling’ Traditional Retirement May Be Unreachable Dream For Many

Mel is a retired Irvine, Calif., dentist who, at 74, says he would rather be working. He spends much of his time riding his horse and doing some volunteering.

“Most of my friends who are retired really don’t like it,” he says.

Mel speaks for a select few. And he voices an opinion that future generations will envy, because retirement is about to become as obsolete as a 1980s IBM PC.

By 2020, age - and the boomers’ fewer children - will overtake the retirement dreams of millions. Instead of four workers per retiree, the ratio today, there will be only two workers to make Social Security and Medicare tax payments.

That’s not all.

Unless U.S. schools keep students ahead of the pack, a globalized economy will “even out” the wages of the world.

In other words, the worker in China and the worker in Detroit will do similar jobs and for similar wages.

For most, the daily grind will never end.

“Working throughout a life span has to be a fundamental element in the nation’s thinking, particularly for boomers,” says Fernando Torres-Gil, a UCLA professor.

Torres-Gil sounded that warning as President Clinton’s assistant secretary of aging three years ago. Now, the Hudson Institute in Indianapolis nails that thesis to Wall Street’s wall with a study of trends expected to shape the work force through 2020.

More years working, fewer benefits, a cutback in federal entitlement programs - “that’s the future,” says Bill Styring, 51, senior fellow at the institute and co-author of the study.

In a century, the United States will have moved from a nation of people who didn’t have “retirement” in their vocabulary, through the so-called golden years and back to square one.

The average retirement age started creeping up in 1995, Styring says; it’s now 63.

“We’re just on the wrong side of the roller coaster,” he says.

“Boomers will face the ‘graybeard ceiling.”’

The focus of the Hudson Institute’s study is the way this army of graybeards will change personnel policies. Will older workers have economic value?

One important conclusion: A shrinking army of young employees will not benefit by adding unskilled workers from other countries. Increasing reliance on technology means employers will struggle to find workers with technologically up-to-date skills.

The good news, Styring says, is that boomers who can read, write, do math and think will be OK in this future world of graying workers.

On the other hand, workers young and old who lack these skills will create unemployment problems “as far as the eye can see,” he says.

The challenge for today’s aging workers is to save, save, save, he says.

And “it becomes even more important for the school systems to make our kids knowledgeable and adaptable in the future,” he says.

“The school systems must deliver, because the barriers of space and distance that once protected our workers no longer exist in the high-tech age.”