Population Squeezes School Funds Nea Study Projects 13.2 Percent Shortfall By 2006

Idaho’s population boom is putting the state’s school funding in a serious bind, a study released this week by the National Education Association says.

Just three states have worse education finances than Idaho, according to the study, which predicts the state will have a 13.2 percent school budget shortfall by 2006.

“That’s what you get for growing rapidly and that’s what you get for having babies,” said Dr. Hal Hovey, the former budget director for Illinois and Ohio, who prepared the study for the NEA.

Hovey is now president of South Carolina-based State Policy Research Inc., which publishes state budget newsletters and other economic policy publications.

His two-year study examined census and budget data for all 50 states. Only 11 states were projected to have a small surplus or no deficit in education funding during the next eight years.

Washington ranked 36th, with a 6.7 percent deficit; and Montana ranked 34th, with a 5.7 percent deficit. Iowa ranked No. 1, with a predicted 2.7 percent surplus, and Nebraska ranked second, with a 1.5 percent surplus. The United States average was a 3.8 percent shortfall.

“This is a good message to us, that it’s going to be important for us to look ahead, be prepared all the time for several years down the road,” said Marilyn Howard, state superintendent of public instruction-elect. “It’s always good to be forewarned of circumstances so we have a chance to examine how we’re managing our budgets and what we’re doing to make sure we can still deliver.”

The study looked only at the cost of continuing existing services, not of adding new programs or reducing class sizes, Hovey said.

The projections are also based on the assumption that federal funding to the states will remain constant. But according to federal budget projections, that piece of the pie is expected to get smaller in coming years, Hovey said.

State Sen. Shawn Keough, R-Sandpoint, who serves on the education committee, said schools already make up two-thirds of Idaho’s budget and that education spending has increased every year.

“I discount studies that try to rank Idaho with other states,” Keough said.

“Comparisons like that aren’t a realistic picture. Idaho is a huge state, but we only have 1.3 million people.

“Every budget in Idaho, even down to the individual person, is going to see a crunch. Our overall budget is going to be tight.”

State lawmakers will need to cut spending or increase revenue by 1 percent or 2 percent over the next eight years to prevent the shortfall, Hovey said.

“Or you can pray that if your economy doesn’t grow as fast as it did earlier in the decade that some people waiting around to go to your schools will disappear,” he said.

Keough said she did not anticipate any statewide tax increases.

Idaho’s population growth ranks second in the nation. The state’s public school enrollment is expected to grow 14.6 percent in the next eight years, while the national average is 8.6 percent, according to the study.

Despite the predicted budget crunch, Idaho’s schools are still doing well, said Jerry Keane, assistant superintendent for the Post Falls School District.

“Funding is always an issue,” Keane said.

“We’re always feeling like we could do a better job if we had more money. … But we also produce a good product with the money we do have.”

Gayle Moore, spokeswoman for the Idaho Education Association, said the state’s tax structure will need to be re-evaluated for facility improvements or reduced class sizes to be considered.

“Tax cuts are probably not the right approach,” Moore said. “They should not be on anybody’s agenda. … This is going to be a surprise to a lot of people that we have not stopped to think about what this means in the future. We need to catch our breath and give it some study.”