Cold Snap Could Create Power Crunch Energy Officials Delay Decisions Until Weather Forecast Is Updated

Northwest energy officials Wednesday put off for two days a declaration that the region faces an energy emergency due to possible widespread cold temperatures.

Representatives from many utilities and planning organizations conferred by phone Wednesday to assess the potential need for electricity - and where it will come from - if a predicted cold snap takes hold next week.

Lows in the single digits below zero are forecast starting Monday night into Tuesday, with highs ranging from 5 to 15 above.

Don Badley, systems operations manager for the Northwest Power Pool, said conferees expect to have better weather forecasts by Friday.

Participants will also have a better handle on how much electricity they will need to keep customer lights on, he said.

“No warnings were issued,” Badley said. “We’re in a look-see status.”

He noted that utilities had agreed to defer maintenance on some equipment to make as many resources available as possible.

The Northwest Power Pool, chaired by Avista Corp.’s Scott Waples, includes representatives from the Bonneville Power Administration and several public and private power generators.

The Power Pool, along with the Northwest Public Power Council and Pacific Northwest Utility Conference Committee, has worked since September to develop a Winter 2000-01 Energy Emergency Plan.

Power Council Power Planning Director Dick Watson said energy shortages and high prices last summer underscored the need to anticipate electricity requirements for the winter, when Northwest consumption peaks.

“Everybody thought we ought to be ready,” he said.

The council, he noted, this spring estimated there is a 25 percent chance the Northwest will experience an electricity shortage by 2003.

A “Regional Talking Points” fact sheet prepared for the task force drafting the emergency plan says odds are as high as 1-in-7 that shortages - but not blackouts - could occur this winter.

“Given normal weather and hydro conditions, there would be no problem,” the sheet says.

But reservoir levels are below normal because October and November were unusually dry.

The task force set three alert levels: one when electricity reserves are short, but all generating units are available; a second if extraordinary measures are necessary; and a third when even extraordinary steps fall short.

Avista Utilities’ Don Groce, who participated in the conference call, said most officials are prepared.

He said Avista, combining its hydro and thermal resources with some purchased power, is among those with the resources to meet projected demand.

No one committed to do anything if a shortage develops, Groce said, but there was general agreement that maintenance would be delayed during an emergency unless plant operations would be compromised.

Wednesday’s discussions recalled phone exchanges that took place after sub-zero temperatures in February 1989 pushed regional electricity use to record levels, he said.

Although helpful, those talks haven’t occurred for almost a decade, he said.

Historically, the Northwest has been able to turn to California for help during the winter, but utilities in that state twice this week have shut off electricity to some customers because there was not enough to go around.

Staff writer Bert Caldwell can be reached at (509) 459-5450 or by e-mail at bertc@spokesman.com