Giuliani’S Negatives Suddenly Gone
When we asked a prominent Democrat if party leaders were cheering Mayor Rudolph Giuliani’s departure from the New York Senate race, he looked grim and snapped, “There was none of that.”
Our friend was admitting what a lot of Democrats will not say in public: The mayor’s decision was bad news for their candidate, Hillary Rodham Clinton. Rick Lazio, the Long Island congressman anointed to take Rudy’s place, could turn out to be a much tougher opponent.
Sure, Giuliani has star power and the ability to attract TV cameras and campaign cash wherever he goes. Rick is no Rudy when it comes to celebrity. But the 42-year-old Lazio, now serving his fourth term in the House, has several advantages over the mayor.
Start with the fact that Lazio actually wants the job. Giuliani was always ambivalent about moving to Washington. He never formally announced his candidacy and seldom strayed north of the Bronx. When he did, he always came home at the end of the day. Lazio has already spent the night at a Holiday Inn in Elmira.
Giuliani’s doubts about the Senate long predated his diagnosis with prostate cancer. He loves being Hizzoner, the King of New York, tooling around town in his Yankees hat. Nobody runs the U.S. Senate, let alone a first-termer with no legislative experience.
Many governors and mayors who make it to Capitol Hill hate the place. That’s one reason Gov. George Pataki turned down the chance to run in Giuliani’s place.
Lazio’s second advantage is a wife and children who actually seem to like him. Giuliani’s wife, actress and TV personality Donna Hanover, was AWOL from his campaign long before their marital problems surfaced. She’d never spend a night in Elmira.
Lazio’s wife, the former Patricia Moriarity, is typecast for New York politics. Together they form two-thirds of a classic balanced ticket, what used to be called “The Three I League”: Italy, Ireland and Israel. Pat Lazio probably drives their two young daughters, Molly Ann and Kelsey, to soccer practice in a minivan.
Which brings up a third Lazio plus: He’s from the suburbs. Upstaters love to visit New York City but they love to leave it, too. There’s a reason few mayors ever win statewide. But the suburbs are ground zero for both parties, particularly middle class towns like West Islip, where Rick was born. Chappaqua, Hillary’s toney new turf in Westchester, doesn’t have quite the same ring for ordinary voters.
Lazio’s fourth advantage is that he’s acceptable to the Conservative Party, which never liked Giuliani and was preparing to nominate someone else. It’s hard to imagine a Republican winning statewide without the Conservative line, particularly in a race as close as this one is likely to be.
Lazio has plenty of liabilities. The first is his lack of name recognition. A Quinnipiac College poll put his statewide favorable rating at 11 percent, with three out of four voters having no opinion of him at all.
Team Clinton has moved swiftly to define him as a right wing ideologue, an ally of the disgraced Newt Gingrich. And in the mid-‘90s Lazio did cast a lot of votes he’ll now have to defend, including one that opponents say would have closed down the Department of Education.
But Lazio defines himself as “exactly in the middle” of the political spectrum and he can point to many progressive positions on the environment, gun control and women’s health issues. He won’t be an easy target for Hillary, as the 1996 election demonstrated: Bill Clinton won Lazio’s district with 54 percent of the vote, while the Congressman was getting 64 percent.
Besides, Lazio’s genial personality is a big asset. He lacks Giuliani’s sharp edges and sworn enemies. Hillary was counting on a massive turnout of blacks and Latinos outraged by Giuliani’s stewardship of the city but voting against Lazio won’t provide the same emotional charge.
Lazio is no lock. New York is a Democratic state where Al Gore will run well at the top of the ticket. George Bush probably won’t spend much money there, holding down GOP turnout.
Hillary has a big head start, and to her credit, she’s worked diligently to learn about the state and improve her campaign style. Senate races often turn on issues and the top concerns this year - health care, education and guns - favor the Democrats.
But few Democrats are cheering Giuliani’s exit. Hillary Clinton has a harder race on her hands today than she did last week.