Ex-offensive coordinators favor passing game as head coaches
One fantasy theory is that former offensive coordinators (OCs) are kinder to QBs and WRs (they throw more), while defensive coordinators (DCs) run more frequently and thus add value to their respective running backs.
Has that held up in 2004? Right away, we see the 13-1 Eagles (helmed by former offensive coach Andy Reid) throw about 60 percent of the time. The 13-1 Steelers (helmed by former defensive coach Bill Cowher) throw 37 percent of the time.
Digging deeper, of the eight teams that throw the highest percentage of total plays, six are coached by former OCs; these teams average 125 more passes per year than the bottom teams. Six of the eight teams that throw the lowest percentage of offensive plays are coached by former DCs; they average about the same number of additional running plays than their pass-happy counterparts. (Note: The year started with 16 teams coached by former OCs and 16 by former DCs.)
Is this simply a matter of the stats being influenced by the fortunes of the teams (winning teams throw less, losing more)? Well, three of the 10 most pass-happy teams have winning records and all three (Vikings, Packers, Eagles) are coached by former OCs.
Only two of those bottom 10 teams in passing percentage have losing records, the Chiefs (former OC as coach) and Texans (former DC). But the 21st and 22nd teams in pass percentage, the Bears and Browns, are losing teams that started the year helmed by former defensive-side coaches.
Conclusion: QBs and WRs get a nice statistical tail wind when coached by former offensive-side coaches, as do RBs when they’re coached by former defensive-side coaches.
Buy
Brett Favre (QB, Packers): This really goes for everyone in Friday’s Packers-Vikings game. The Packers won’t have the elements helping the defense and the Vikings haven’t been able to make a big stop all year. If you’re in your fantasy championship and have a couple of starters in this game, Merry Christmas.
Jake Plummer (QB, Broncos): Plummer has one TD pass vs. eight INTs the past three weeks. But don’t bench him this week against the Titans, who are crippled in their secondary and have yielded 13 TD passes the past four weeks (or 0.7 points per attempt, which is about as good as Peyton Manning in ‘04).
Sell
Julius Jones (RB, Cowboys): Hopefully, you listened to us the week before the Cowboys activated him and rode him into your fantasy playoffs. But last week’s matchup was unkind to Jones and this week’s is worse, as the Redskins are plain nasty vs. the run (3.1 per carry and seven rushing TDs allowed). Jones became the second running back (after Earl Campbell) in NFL history to register 30 carries or more three consecutive weeks and will make a fine first-round fantasy pick in 2005.
Philadelphia Eagles: Andy Reid will have the urge to take Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook out of uniform and place them in shrink wrap come Monday night. If they play at all, it will only be for as long as Reid can hold his breath. And losing Terrell Owens turns this offense back into last year’s uninspiring, unexplosive lot anyway.
Hold
Peyton Manning (QB, Colts): What’s happened to the NFL’s fair-haired boy? Last time we checked, he was averaging 0.8 points per passing attempt (TD passes times seven divided by passing attempts). But the last three weeks, he’s declined about 40 percent in that category. He’ll rebound against a San Diego defense that has been generally solid but that yielded almost 400 passing yards and three TDs to Brian Griese two weeks ago.