Armstrong has a new challenge
LIEGE, Belgium — Lance Armstrong begins his historic attempt to win a sixth consecutive Tour de France title here Saturday. Over the next three weeks, he will battle 180 riders over more than 2,000 miles of pavement that climbs more than 105,000 vertical feet.
He’ll burn about 160,000 calories and turn the pedals more than 500,000 times at an average speed of 25 mph.
He’ll also have to deal with the Curse of the Sixth Win. In the 100-year history of the race, only four riders other than Armstrong have won five championships. All failed in their efforts to win a sixth yellow jersey.
Armstrong won his record-tying fifth Tour de France last year after surviving multiple charges from his rivals, severe dehydration and a wicked collision with a spectator. He won by only 61 seconds after three weeks of racing. It won’t be any easier this year.
How will it all work out? Here are arguments for and against his beating the curse and winning No. 6:
He’ll win: Because Armstrong’s only significant goal of the season is to win the Tour de France, he has the luxury of focusing the efforts of his powerful U.S. Postal Service team and its $9 million annual budget on winning the yellow jersey.
European teams must compete in traditional national and regional races to get the media exposure that sponsors demand for their millions so rival riders can’t always design their schedules around the three-week race in France.
Armstrong’s sponsors never lack for exposure thanks to his steady stream of TV commercials, magazine cover stories and two Outdoor Life Network cable TV series. The races Armstrong competes in before the Tour de France are considered preparatory and have specific training goals that supercede trying for a win.
Since winning the 1999 Tour de France, Armstrong has not competed in the other grand tours in Italy and Spain. Instead, he invests his energy in France-specific training and spends his sponsors’ money on cutting-edge technology and a well-paid support team.
“Riding a grand tour takes a huge toll in stress and effort,” says Chris Carmichael, Armstrong’s longtime coach. “Each one takes some longevity from your career.”
He’ll lose: Because he’s almost 33 and nearing retirement age for the elite corps of riders who subject themselves to the agonizing rigors of the three-week grand tours.
Fast-twitch sprinters such as 37-year-old Mario Cipollini can coax a few more years from their legs, but the mountain specialists who ride their bikes in the thin, high air of the Alps and Pyrenees soon discover that their limbs and lungs can only take so much abuse. In the last 50 years, only five riders 32 or older have won the tour.
Among Armstrong’s chief rivals, German Jan Ullrich is 30, Spain’s Iban Mayo is 26 and Italian Ivan Basso is 26.
Belgian Eddy Merckx, considered the greatest cyclist, won his fifth and final Tour de France in 1974 at 29 and retired at 32.
Miguel Indurain of Spain, the last rider to win five tours, won his final yellow jersey at 31 and retired at 32 after losing his 1996 bid for a sixth win.
In addition, Armstrong has endured testicular cancer; the surgeries, chemotherapy and radiation treatments that saved his life took a tremendous physical toll. He showed signs of vulnerability in the 2003 tour on a course that, on paper, does not match the difficulties of this year’s route.
He’ll win: Because his team is better than any in the race. Road cycling is just as much a team sport as football, and the U.S. Postal Service team has won five consecutive Super Bowls of cycling because it thinks and acts as a single entity.
Armstrong is the captain, Johan Bruyneel is the coach (“director sportif” in cycling lingo) and everyone else has the mission of delivering their guy to the top of the podium when the race concludes in Paris.
Bruyneel is a master tactician and knows how to deploy his troops while engaging in intense psychological warfare with opposing teams.
From the soigneurs who give massages and take care of the luggage to the mechanics and cooks and drivers, Armstrong’s team knows how to win.
After the U.S. Postal Service announced earlier this year that it would not renew its title sponsorship of the team after this season, there was speculation the team would fracture under the uncertainty of acquiring a new patron. But the Discovery Channel came on board in June, signing a lucrative three-year deal that begins in 2005.
“These guys are loyal,” Armstrong said of his team after the deal was announced. “But sometimes when financial things are shaky on a team, riders start looking out for themselves. That’s not going to happen to us.”
He’ll lose: Because the game plan that won five Tours de France for Armstrong has been figured out by rival teams, and they have identified the chinks in Postal’s armor. He came within 15 seconds of losing the yellow jersey several times last year, and the other contenders smell blood in the water.
They’re planning to attack early and often, forcing Armstrong to burn precious energy that he’ll need in the grueling final stages that will decide the championship.
Another strategy is to have more than one designated leader, forcing Armstrong’s team to figure out which rider it must “mark,” or follow, on the steep mountain passes.
If the wrong choice is made, the unencumbered rider could escape and build a huge time gap on the defending champion.
Postal’s ability to use that tactic is limited, Bruyneel says. “We have several excellent climbers who can take over the yellow jersey,” he says. “But the team has no options when it comes to who must win the race when it ends in Paris.”
He’ll win: Because Armstrong makes his luck by paying close and demanding attention to the many details that go into winning the Tour de France.
“There are a million parts to winning the Tour de France,” Armstrong says. “You have to pay attention to every one. It is not something you can decide to do a month before the race; it has to be the way you always go about your business.”
He measures his bicycle every morning to make sure it is set up to his exact specifications. Bike supplier Trek spent a small fortune developing a hyper-aerodynamic time-trial bike for him this year. But just a month before the tour, Armstrong decided the change was too risky and kept his original machine.
He has examined every inch of the 2,110-mile course and has memorized the bumps and dips, curves and gutters.
He weighs every gram of food that goes into his body and charts the number of minutes of sleep he must have at night.
He has considered every solution to every conceivable problem well before it happens and demands that his support staff come up with immediate contingency solutions.
“He doesn’t take ‘no’ for an answer,” says Carmichael. “And he doesn’t take, ‘Let me get back to you,’ either.”
He’ll lose: Because sometimes things happen in a three-week race that can’t be anticipated or prevented, a wicked twist of intangible fate that in the last century has somehow kept the greatest riders of the sport from winning a sixth yellow jersey.
By July 25, we’ll know if Armstrong is the anointed one who beats the curse or just the latest five-win champion whose reach exceeded his grasp.